Brexit (i.e. the UK leaving the EU): What percentage will the Leave side achieve?
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Modification proposal 1 accepted on 2016/04/04 06:24:18- 8 years ago
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QuestionWhat is the probability of BREXIT i.e. the UK leaving the EU?Brexit (i.e. the UK leaving the EU): What percentage will the Leave side achieve?Judgement ruleThe result will based on the final decision in June/July 2016.The result will be based on the final decision in June/July 2016.Question typeOrdered answer scaleAnswers- 1. (10.00%) 0-10%
- 2. (10.00%) 11-20%
- 3. (10.00%) 21-30%
- 4. (10.00%) 31-40%
- 5. (10.00%) 41-50%
- 6. (10.00%) 51-60%
- 7. (10.00%) 61-70%
- 8. (10.00%) 71-80%
- 9. (10.00%) 81-90%
- 10. (10.00%) 91-100%
Time zoneAfrica/JohannesburgReference date:2016/06/30 24:00Result expected on2016/07/31 24:00Trading session (optional):until- No support required
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New question proposed obsolete on 2016/04/04 06:24:18
- 8 years ago
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Hi Jiaqi, thanks for your question.
The likelihood is the outcome for your question, it should not be not the question itself as it cannot be empirically established.
To make this a proper prediciton market question (verifiable) it needs to be reformulated (use "§" -> "Modify" to change it). There are two possiblities depending on what you want: (1) the outcome of the referendum, or (2) what is happening afterwards Britain exiting or not or to what degree. Or you can or course do two question.
If your project wants to explore (1) your question could be for example: "Brexit: What percentage will the Leave side achieve?" Do you know how to recruit respondents for your project?
...more- 8 years ago
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QuestionWhat is the probability of BREXIT i.e. the UK leaving the EU?Judgement ruleThe result will based on the final decision in June/July 2016.Question typeOrdered answer scaleAnswers- 1. (10.00%) 0-10%
- 2. (10.00%) 11-20%
- 3. (10.00%) 21-30%
- 4. (10.00%) 31-40%
- 5. (10.00%) 41-50%
- 6. (10.00%) 51-60%
- 7. (10.00%) 61-70%
- 8. (10.00%) 71-80%
- 9. (10.00%) 81-90%
- 10. (10.00%) 91-100%
Time zoneAfrica/JohannesburgReference date:2016/06/30 24:00Result expected on2016/07/31 24:00Trading session (optional):until- No support required
- No voting required
Thank you Hubertus. I will send out invitation soon - but the Google email contact invitation does not seem to work on the Web site, not sure why.
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