Will Donald Trump be re-elected in 2020 election?

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Reference date: July 26, 2019, 10:00 CEST

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Poll of the week: A new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds that President Donald Trump's approval rating among voters nationwide is 45%. His disapproval rating is 52%. This makes for a net approval (approval - disapproval) of -7 points.

The average poll has Trump's net approval among voters at -9 points.

What's the point: Trump's 2020 strategy seemed to be in full swing this past week. He looks to be doubling down on a campaign of hardline immigration policies and racial resentment. Trump lashed out in a racist Twitter tirade, telling four " 'Progressive' Democrat Congresswomen [to...] go back and help fix the totally broken and crime infested places from which they came."

The Trump strategy is pretty simple: 1. Drive up the unfavorable ratings of his Democratic rival as he did in 2016 in order to compensate for his own low ratings. 2. Bank on an electoral college/popular vote split as he did in 2016. 3. Use a campaign of racial resentment to drive up turnout even more among groups favorable toward the President.

The potentially pivotal state in the electoral college may be 4 to 5 points more Republican than the nation as a whole in 2020. This means the opportunity for an electoral college/popular vote split in Trump's favor remains quite plausible.

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New York Times article:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/us/politics/2020-presidential-candidates.html

Donald Trump speech:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YKS7nwkn4FI

 

 

 

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Giovanni Casonato
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