Modification proposals - Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017 at least on one day, and by how much?

Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 10 accepted on 2017/06/08 05:03:04

ETH/BTC Broke though 0.089 mBTC on 31 May 2017.
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ETH/BTC Broke though 0.089 mBTC on 31 May 2017.
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Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017 at least on one day, and by how much?

Judgement rule

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) gives the answer percentage.

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD.

If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~No, up to 50%~~

1. 2 (25.00%) No, 50 to 100%

2. 3 (25.00%) Yes, 100 to 200%

3. 4 (25.00%) Yes, 200% or more

Time zone

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

100.00% Yes

0.00% No

12.26% Participation
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 9 accepted on 2017/06/04 18:42:26

Question title violated Regulation § 5 (1) potentially misleading traders. Added "on at least one day" to make it consistent with question rule (and question owner's original intent as per earlier drafts). Also removed irrelevant descriptions which belongs in the wiki.
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Question title violated Regulation § 5 (1) potentially misleading traders. Added "on at least one day" to make it consistent with question rule (and question owner's original intent as per earlier drafts). Also removed irrelevant descriptions which belongs in the wiki.
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Question

~~Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017, and by how much?~~
Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017 at least on one day, and by how much?

Judgement rule

Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency and has the largest market capitalisation at the time of this question. Ethereum is a cryptocurrency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. How will their marketcap change in 2017?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) is in the answer range.
Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) gives the answer percentage.

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD.

If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (25.00%) No, up to 50%

2. (25.00%) No, 50 to 100%

3. (25.00%) Yes, 100 to 200%

4. (25.00%) Yes, 200% or more

Time zone

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

100.00% Yes

0.00% No

17.01% Participation
Prediki Predictions, Platform Operator

Modification proposal 8 accepted on 2017/05/20 13:05:16

Added Yes.../No... to answers, for clarity.
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Added Yes.../No... to answers, for clarity.
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Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017, and by how much?

Judgement rule

Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency and has the largest market capitalisation at the time of this question. Ethereum is a cryptocurrency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. How will their marketcap change in 2017?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) is in the answer range.

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~Up to 50%~~ (25.00%) No, up to 50%

2. ~~50 to 100%~~ (25.00%) No, 50 to 100%

3. ~~100 to 200%~~ (25.00%) Yes, 100 to 200%

4. ~~200% or more~~ (25.00%) Yes, 200% or more

Time zone

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Prediki Predictions, Platform Operator

Modification proposal 7 accepted on 2017/05/17 05:13:30

The question title was too complex, which may scare off participants. Now it is better readable. The rule only mentioned ETH, added BTC for balance.
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The question title was too complex, which may scare off participants. Now it is better readable. The rule only mentioned ETH, added BTC for balance.
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- Roland Kofler
  
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  I'm talking about prefixing the answers with No... for the first 2 and Yes for the next 2. That is really necessary, I insist.
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  Get it now. Will do.
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~~What will be the highest Ethereum market capitalization in terms of Bitcoin marketcap in 2017?~~
Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017, and by how much?

Judgement rule

Ethereum is a crypto currency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. How will their marketcap change in 2017?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) is in the answer range.
Bitcoin is the first cryptocurrency and has the largest market capitalisation at the time of this question. Ethereum is a cryptocurrency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. How will their marketcap change in 2017?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) is in the answer range.

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (25.00%) Up to 50%

2. (25.00%) 50 to 100%

3. (25.00%) 100 to 200%

4. (25.00%) 200% or more

Time zone

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 6 accepted on 2017/03/25 13:48:30

Answer ranges should be easier readable.
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Answer ranges should be easier readable.
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Question

What will be the highest Ethereum market capitalization in terms of Bitcoin marketcap in 2017?

Judgement rule

Ethereum is a crypto currency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. How will their marketcap change in 2017?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) is greater than x, then x is true.
Ethereum is a crypto currency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. How will their marketcap change in 2017?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) is in the answer range.

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~BTC++: Ethereum less than half (ETH <= 50% BTC)~~ (25.00%) Up to 50%

2. ~~BTC+: Ethereum more than half (50% BTC < ETH <= BTC)~~ (25.00%) 50 to 100%

3. ~~ETH+: Ethereum up to double more (BTC < ETH <= 200% BTC)~~ (25.00%) 100 to 200%

4. ~~ETH++: Ethereum more than double (200% BTC < ETH)~~ (25.00%) 200% or more

Time zone

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 5 obsolete on 2017/03/25 13:48:30

In afterthought, the answer option names look like hell. Here is a proposed improvement, not changing the substance of the question. The formula in the rule remains unchanged.
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In afterthought, the answer option names look like hell. Here is a proposed improvement, not changing the substance of the question. The formula in the rule remains unchanged.
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- Roland Kofler
  
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  "Ethereum more than half of Bitcoin - 50%" doesn't make sense to me
  peak ETH below 50% BTC
  peak ETH between 50% and 100% BTC
  peak ETH between 100% and 200% BTC
  peak ETH above 200% BTC
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  I guess you're right. I will try a-new. Still too much redundant text, I will try a more streamlined one.
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Question

What will be the highest Ethereum market capitalization in terms of Bitcoin marketcap in 2017?

Judgement rule

Ethereum is a crypto currency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. How will their marketcap change in 2017?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) is greater than x, then x is true.

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~BTC++: Ethereum less than half (ETH <= 50% BTC)~~ (25.00%) Ethereum up to half of Bitcoin - 0%

2. ~~BTC+: Ethereum more than half (50% BTC < ETH <= BTC)~~ (25.00%) Ethereum more than half of Bitcoin - 50%

3. ~~ETH+: Ethereum up to double more (BTC < ETH <= 200% BTC)~~ (25.00%) Ethereum up to double of Bitcoin - 100%

4. ~~ETH++: Ethereum more than double (200% BTC < ETH)~~ (25.00%) Ethereum more than double of Bitcoin - 200%

Time zone

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Needs owner support

0.00% Yes

0.00% No

0.00% Participation
Roland Kofler

Modification proposal 4 accepted on 2016/11/30 06:17:11

adapted question to reflect the scaling answers
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adapted question to reflect the scaling answers
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- Roland Kofler
  
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  Maybe I have to RTFM but shorting normally means to bet against it.
  Because it's way more unlikely than the other options a rational player puts all money on shorting answer 4.
  
  ETH++: Ethereum more than double (200% BTC < ETH)
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  You can just enter it on the trading screen (don't confirm). The system will show you how many credits you can make ("Shares") if right. Then decide according to your subjective expectation...
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~~Will Ethereum's market capitalization surpass Bitcoin in 2017 for at least a single day?~~
What will be the highest Ethereum market capitalization in terms of Bitcoin marketcap in 2017?

Judgement rule

Ethereum is a crypto currency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. Will it top the incumbent Bitcoin in 2017 for at least a day?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether must surpass Bitcoin in the market capitalization at coinmarketcap.com for at least 24h
Ethereum is a crypto currency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. How will their marketcap change in 2017?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) is greater than x, then x is true.

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (25.00%) BTC++: Ethereum less than half (ETH <= 50% BTC)

2. (25.00%) BTC+: Ethereum more than half (50% BTC < ETH <= BTC)

3. (25.00%) ETH+: Ethereum up to double more (BTC < ETH <= 200% BTC)

4. (25.00%) ETH++: Ethereum more than double (200% BTC < ETH)

Time zone

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
No support required

100.00% Yes

0.00% No

100.00% Participation
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 3 accepted on 2016/11/29 03:06:28

Differentiated answer options
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Differentiated answer options
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Question

Will Ethereum's market capitalization surpass Bitcoin in 2017 for at least a single day?

Judgement rule

Ethereum is a crypto currency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. Will it top the incumbent Bitcoin in 2017 for at least a day?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether must surpass Bitcoin in the market capitalization at coinmarketcap.com for at least 24h

Question type

~~Two alternatives~~
Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~Yes~~ (25.00%) BTC++: Ethereum less than half (ETH <= 50% BTC)

2. No (25.00%) BTC+: Ethereum more than half (50% BTC < ETH <= BTC) New colour

3. (25.00%) ETH+: Ethereum up to double more (BTC < ETH <= 200% BTC)

4. (25.00%) ETH++: Ethereum more than double (200% BTC < ETH)

Time zone

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 2 accepted on 2016/11/27 05:12:22

Made the 1 day requirement explicit in the question title to comply with Regulation §5 (1). Removed factual info from the judgement rule which should go into the wiki. Added flexibility for source data to avoid the "Korean missile" problem. Changed time Zone to UTC as this is a global question.
...more

Made the 1 day requirement explicit in the question title to comply with Regulation §5 (1). Removed factual info from the judgement rule which should go into the wiki. Added flexibility for source data to avoid the "Korean missile" problem. Changed time Zone to UTC as this is a global question.
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Question

~~Will Ethereum's market capitalization surpass Bitcoin in 2017?~~
Will Ethereum's market capitalization surpass Bitcoin in 2017 for at least a single day?

Judgement rule

Ethereum is the upcoming crypto currency, featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts. Ethereum became second in Marketcap in March 2016 after its "Homestead" release launch. Will it top Bitcoin in 2017?

Source of decisional Data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#EUR

Criteria: Ether must surpass Bitcoin in the market capitalization at coinmarketcap.com for at least 24h
Ethereum is a crypto currency featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts, ranked #2 in market cap as of 27 November 2016 on coinmarketcap.com. Will it top the incumbent Bitcoin in 2017 for at least a day?

Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".

Criteria: Ether must surpass Bitcoin in the market capitalization at coinmarketcap.com for at least 24h

Question type

Two alternatives

Answers

(50.00%) Yes

(50.00%) No

Time zone

~~Europe/Rome~~

UTC

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Roland Kofler

Modification proposal 1 obsolete on 2016/11/27 05:12:22

USD as basis
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USD as basis
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  Thinking about this question rule again, I do not think that the 24h element is reflected sufficiently in the question title which is potentially in violation of Prediki Regulation §5 (1). I will give this a try.
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  BTW: Do you really want to have the 24 hour element? It adds volatility to the outcome thereby detracting from the core truth we are seeking.
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Will Ethereum's market capitalization surpass Bitcoin in 2017?

Judgement rule

Ethereum is the upcoming crypto currency, featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts. Ethereum became second in Marketcap in March 2016 after its "Homestead" release launch. Will it top Bitcoin in 2017?

Source of decisional Data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#EUR

Criteria: Ether must surpass Bitcoin in the market capitalization at coinmarketcap.com for at least 24h
Ethereum is the upcoming crypto currency, featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts. Ethereum became second in Marketcap in March 2016 after its "Homestead" release launch. Will it top Bitcoin in 2017?

Source of decisional Data: https://coinmarketcap.com/

Criteria: Ether must surpass Bitcoin in the market capitalization at coinmarketcap.com for at least 24h

Marketcap Currency is USD

Question type

Two alternatives

Answers

(50.00%) Yes

(50.00%) No

Time zone

Europe/Rome

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
No support required

No voting required
Roland Kofler

New question proposed accepted on 2016/11/27 04:30:49
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  Will report to support, thanks. Replying here is actually correct as the rule discussion is a level above the subject matter question page.
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  PS: Prediki is built for de-emotionalisation. Emotions work against getting good predictions and against finding the best solution for societal, political, economic or business problems. This will make it less popular in the short run but we believe that, ultimately, the truth will always win.
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Question

Will Ethereum's market capitalization surpass Bitcoin in 2017?

Judgement rule

Ethereum is the upcoming crypto currency, featuring immutable and unstoppable scripts also known as Smart Contracts. Ethereum became second in Marketcap in March 2016 after its "Homestead" release launch. Will it top Bitcoin in 2017?

Source of decisional Data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#EUR

Criteria: Ether must surpass Bitcoin in the market capitalization at coinmarketcap.com for at least 24h

Question type

Two alternatives

Answers

(50.00%) Yes

(50.00%) No

Time zone

Europe/Rome

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
No support required

No voting required

Modification proposal or Copy question