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Leveraging collective intelligence with Prediki

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Convert distributed information and individual assessments into usable knowledge.

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The many know more than one

Since Greek antiquity it is known that decisions made by a larger group of people are generally better than those made by an individual expert - or even a small group of experts [1]. This phenomenon is also an argument for the superiority, in principle, of the democratic system of government and of a participative leadership style.

However, it is neither just the actual crowd, nor the simple summing up of individual opinions - the majority of which could be wrong or even manipulated through media - which facilitate better decision making [2]. The key to success, rather, is an orderly process of discussion and deliberation of all those interested and affected preceding the decision.

The Prediki method

Prediki ensures such a process by the following means:

  1. Prediction trading -- Trading of "answer opinions" - similar to a stock exchange's double auction - is a mechanism which facilitates the free competition of (contrarian) individual opinions. The resulting balance of opinions produces a superior forecast to the simple addition of individual opinions [3].
  2. Analysis -- Prediki's wiki-style collective authoring system complements, and is tightly integrated with, the prediction trading engine. Wikis facilitate the production of high-quality, structured analytical research and the integration of data from related questions. Unlike Wikipedia, it is not a mandatory requirement to cite sources for every statement on Prediki, as the prediction market's prices allow an assessment of the argumentation.
  3. Democracy -- Not only forecasts and analysis, also changes to questions or their answer definitions, as well as results, are determined exclusively by participants. Well-calibrated voting processes ensure that the substance and intent of questions is preserved.
  1. Aristotle: Politics, Book III, Chapter 11
  2. cf. Elias Canetti: "Crowds and Power", 1960 (Nobel Prize winner 1981)
  3. Vernon Smith: "Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the Hayek Hypothesis", 1982 (Nobel Prize winner 2002)
  4. Friedrich A. Hayek: "The Use of Knowledge in Society", 1945 (Nobel Prize winner 1974)
  5. Wikipedia: Collective intelligence

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