Leadership through future questions

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Summary

A participative style - whether in a company or in politics - allows the broad involvement of all people effected by a decision. More support for decisions, higher motivation, as well as greater freedom and independence for everybody are the result.

== A leader asks questions ==

Since Greek antiquity it is known that decisions made by a larger group of people are generally better than those made by an individual expert - or even a small group of experts [1]. This phenomenon is also an argument for the superiority, in principle, of the democratic system of government and of a participative leadership style.

However, it is neither just the actual crowd, nor the simple summing up of individual opinions - the majority of which could be wrong or even manipulated through media - which facilitate better decision making [2]. The key to success, rather, is an orderly process of discussion and deliberation of all those interested and affected preceding the decision.

== The Prediki method ==

Prediki ensures such a process by the following means:

# **Prediction trading** -- Trading of "answer opinions" - similar to a stock exchange's double auction - is a mechanism which facilitates the free competition of (contrarian) individual opinions. The resulting balance of opinions produces a superior forecast to the simple addition of individual opinions [3].
# **Analysis** -- Prediki's wiki-style collective authoring system complements, and is tightly integrated with, the prediction trading engine. Wikis facilitate the production of high-quality, structured analytical research and the integration of data from related questions. Unlike Wikipedia, it is not a mandatory requirement to cite sources for every statement on Prediki, as the prediction market's prices allow an assessment of the argumentation.
# **Democracy** -- Not only forecasts and analysis, also changes to questions or their answer definitions, as well as results, are determined exclusively by participants. Well-calibrated voting processes ensure that the substance and intent of questions is preserved.

== External links ==

# Aristotle: Politics, Book III, Chapter 11
# cf. Elias Canetti: [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Crowds_and_Power|"Crowds and Power"]], 1960 (Nobel Prize winner 1981)
# [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vernon_L._Smith|Vernon Smith]]: "Markets as Economizers of Information: Experimental Examination of the Hayek Hypothesis", 1982 (Nobel Prize winner 2002)
# Friedrich A. Hayek: [[http://emilyskarbek.com/uploads/The_Use_of_Knowledge_in_Society_-_Hayek.pdf|"The Use of Knowledge in Society"]], 1945 (Nobel Prize winner 1974)
# [[http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Collective_intelligence|Collective intelligence]]

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