Modification proposals - Is there a cryptocurrency bubble building in 2017 and by when will it burst?

Roland Kofler

Modification proposal 3 accepted on 2017/05/24 14:36:57

diminishing to 30% based on the Bitcoin bubble Dec 2013. where price only dropped by a third introducing a 2y bear market
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diminishing to 30% based on the Bitcoin bubble Dec 2013. where price only dropped by a third introducing a 2y bear market
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- Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
  
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  Fine by me although I think 50% is indicative. The NASDAQ drop was dampened by other IT shares.
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Is there a cryptocurrency bubble building in 2017 and by when will it burst?

Judgement rule

Early 2017 saw a huge rise in the total market capitalisation of several cryprocurrencies. New highs following one after the other. A decrease of 50% of total market cap from any all time high reached during 2017 shall be defined as a bubble. The day on which the threshold is reached defines the quarter in which the bubble burst.

Measure is the total market capitalization, as defined on https://coinmarketcap.com/charts
Early 2017 saw a huge rise in the total market capitalisation of several cryprocurrencies. New highs following one after the other. A decrease of 30% of total market cap from any all time high reached during 2017 shall be defined as a bubble. The day on which the threshold is reached defines the quarter in which the bubble burst.

Measure is the total market capitalization, as defined on https://coinmarketcap.com/charts

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (20.00%) By 30 June 2017 (before Summer)

2. (20.00%) By 31 August (during Summer)

3. (20.00%) By 31 October (early Autumn)

4. (20.00%) by 31 December (Winter)

5. (20.00%) Later or never (it's not a bubble)

Time zone

Europe/Rome

Reference date:

2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
No support required

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 2 accepted on 2017/05/24 11:58:26

More neutral question (not implying that there is a bubble). More readable answers.
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More neutral question (not implying that there is a bubble). More readable answers.
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- 8 years ago
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~~When will the Cryptocurrency Bubble burst?~~
Is there a cryptocurrency bubble building in 2017 and by when will it burst?

Judgement rule

A decrease of 50% within 2 months from ATH is a burst

I'm starting to define this question here. I AM NOT SURE IF IT MAKES SENSE AT ALL Means: can a prediction market be more accurate than the asset market which is a prediction market on the same topic but with way more skin in the game and way more liquidity? Probably not. Hubertus what is your word on that?
Early 2017 saw a huge rise in the total market capitalisation of several cryprocurrencies. New highs following one after the other. A decrease of 50% of total market cap from any all time high reached during 2017 shall be defined as a bubble. The day on which the threshold is reached defines the quarter in which the bubble burst.

Measure is the total market capitalization, as defined on https://coinmarketcap.com/charts

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~before 2017-01-07~~ (20.00%) By 30 June 2017 (before Summer)

2. ~~before 2017-01-09~~ (20.00%) By 31 August (during Summer)

3. ~~before 2017-01-11~~ (20.00%) By 31 October (early Autumn)

4. ~~before 2018-01-01~~ (20.00%) by 31 December (Winter)

5. ~~never or afterwards~~ (20.00%) Later or never (it's not a bubble)

Time zone

Europe/Rome

Reference date:

~~2018/01/02 24:00~~
2017/12/31 24:00

Result expected on

~~2018/01/02 24:00~~
2017/12/31 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required

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