Is there a cryptocurrency bubble building in 2017 and by when will it burst?
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Modification proposal 3 accepted on 2017/05/24 15:36:57- 6 years ago
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QuestionIs there a cryptocurrency bubble building in 2017 and by when will it burst?Judgement ruleEarly 2017 saw a huge rise in the total market capitalisation of several cryprocurrencies. New highs following one after the other. A decrease of 50% of total market cap from any all time high reached during 2017 shall be defined as a bubble. The day on which the threshold is reached defines the quarter in which the bubble burst.
Measure is the total market capitalization, as defined on https://coinmarketcap.com/chartsEarly 2017 saw a huge rise in the total market capitalisation of several cryprocurrencies. New highs following one after the other. A decrease of 30% of total market cap from any all time high reached during 2017 shall be defined as a bubble. The day on which the threshold is reached defines the quarter in which the bubble burst.
Measure is the total market capitalization, as defined on https://coinmarketcap.com/chartsQuestion typeOrdered answer scaleAnswers- 1. (20.00%) By 30 June 2017 (before Summer)
- 2. (20.00%) By 31 August (during Summer)
- 3. (20.00%) By 31 October (early Autumn)
- 4. (20.00%) by 31 December (Winter)
- 5. (20.00%) Later or never (it's not a bubble)
Time zoneEurope/RomeReference date:2017/12/31 24:00Result expected on2017/12/31 24:00Trading session (optional):until- No support required
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Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief FuturistModification proposal 2 accepted on 2017/05/24 12:58:26- 6 years ago
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QuestionWhen will the Cryptocurrency Bubble burst?Is there a cryptocurrency bubble building in 2017 and by when will it burst?Judgement ruleA decrease of 50% within 2 months from ATH is a burst
I'm starting to define this question here. I AM NOT SURE IF IT MAKES SENSE AT ALL Means: can a prediction market be more accurate than the asset market which is a prediction market on the same topic but with way more skin in the game and way more liquidity? Probably not. Hubertus what is your word on that?Early 2017 saw a huge rise in the total market capitalisation of several cryprocurrencies. New highs following one after the other. A decrease of 50% of total market cap from any all time high reached during 2017 shall be defined as a bubble. The day on which the threshold is reached defines the quarter in which the bubble burst.
Measure is the total market capitalization, as defined on https://coinmarketcap.com/chartsQuestion typeOrdered answer scaleAnswers-
1.
before 2017-01-07(20.00%) By 30 June 2017 (before Summer) -
2.
before 2017-01-09(20.00%) By 31 August (during Summer) -
3.
before 2017-01-11(20.00%) By 31 October (early Autumn) -
4.
before 2018-01-01(20.00%) by 31 December (Winter) -
5.
never or afterwards(20.00%) Later or never (it's not a bubble)
Time zoneEurope/RomeReference date:2018/01/02 24:002017/12/31 24:00Result expected on2018/01/02 24:002017/12/31 24:00Trading session (optional):until- Supported
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Modification proposal 1 declined on 2017/05/23 14:06:32
- 6 years ago
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QuestionWhen will the Cryptocurrency Bubble burst?Judgement ruleA decrease of 50% within 2 months from ATH is a burst
I'm starting to define this question here. I AM NOT SURE IF IT MAKES SENSE AT ALL Means: can a prediction market be more accurate than the asset market which is a prediction market on the same topic but with way more skin in the game and way more liquidity? Probably not. Hubertus what is your word on that?A decrease of 50% within 2 months from its All Time High (ATH) is a burst
Measure is the Total Market Capitalization on https://coinmarketcap.com/chartsQuestion typeOrdered answer scaleAnswers- 1. (20.00%) before 2017-01-07
- 2. (20.00%) before 2017-01-09
- 3. (20.00%) before 2017-01-11
- 4. (20.00%) before 2018-01-01
- 5. (20.00%) never or afterwards
Time zoneEurope/RomeReference date:2018/01/02 24:00Result expected on2018/01/02 24:00Trading session (optional):until- No support required
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New question proposed declined on 2017/05/23 13:03:06
- 6 years ago
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>>can a prediction market be more accurate
I'd say "More informative". More importantly, you can design and field informative questions which are not possible on a betting exchange or on a financial market.>>with way more skin in the game
Skin in the game is overrated, by those who want to take advantage of compulsive gamblers. For those who like money, they can win (but never lose) some on Prediki, if a some sponsor is interested in the information generated from the crowd. Traders can also gain what money cannot buy: the honor (of being right) & deepert knowledge (maybe even some wisdom).>>When will the Cryptocurrency Bubble burst?
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This needs more specificity to become empirical. Which crypto? For how long shall it stay down, to avoid misjudgement with a flash drop?- 6 years ago
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QuestionWhen will the Cryptocurrency Bubble burst?Judgement ruleA decrease of 50% within 2 months from ATH is a burst
I'm starting to define this question here. I AM NOT SURE IF IT MAKES SENSE AT ALL Means: can a prediction market be more accurate than the asset market which is a prediction market on the same topic but with way more skin in the game and way more liquidity? Probably not. Hubertus what is your word on that?Question typeOrdered answer scaleAnswers- 1. (20.00%) before 2017-01-07
- 2. (20.00%) before 2017-01-09
- 3. (20.00%) before 2017-01-11
- 4. (20.00%) before 2018-01-01
- 5. (20.00%) never or afterwards
Time zoneEurope/RomeReference date:2018/01/02 24:00Result expected on2018/01/02 24:00Trading session (optional):until- No support required
- No voting required
Fine by me although I think 50% is indicative. The NASDAQ drop was dampened by other IT shares.
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