Ohio Senate?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
Which candidate will get the most votes?
Reference date: Sept. 8, 2022, 09:05 EDT

Answer options

Widget Price
● J.D. Vance (R)
50.00 %
● Tim Ryan (D)
50.00 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

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Question/Information

 

Most Recent Poll:

Stefanik (R): 68%

Castelli (D): 42%

 

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/2022/

Current Prediction from 538:

99% Stefanik (R)

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2022-election-forecast/house/new-york/21/

Money Raised this Election Cycle:

Stefanik (R): $7,327,076.16

Castelli (D): $1,114,515.86

 

https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H4NY21079/

https://www.fec.gov/data/candidate/H2NY21164/

Money Spent this Election Cycle:

Stefanik (R): $6,683,701.65

Castelli (D): $683,097.60

 

SOURCE LINKS (if different from above)

Current Cash on Hand:

Stefanik (R): $2,626,915.33

Castelli (D): $431,418.26

 

SOURCE LINKS (if different from above)

Most Recent Campaign Advertisement or Appearance Online:

Stefanik (R): “Elise Holds Rally with Marc Molinaro and Montgomery County Supporters 08.15.2022”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FbR-sR_DvdI

 

Castelli (D): “Matt Castelli – Mission”

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EYZ9C4H_Uwc

Top 4 News Headlines:

Stefanik (R):

1) Stefanik urges Canada to drop ArriveCAN requirement for cross-border travel (WWNY)

2) Poll: Former Stefanik aide and ex-Trump official tied in swing district GOP primary (The Hill)

3) Top U.S. Republican urges Canada to scrap ArriveCAN app (CBC)

4) Stefanik calls for transparency from FBI on Trump search, limo crash (WCAX)

 

Castelli (D):

1) Meet the NY-21 congressional candidates: Matt Castelli (WWTI)

2) NY-21 Democrats release first video ads ahead primary (The Press Republican)

3) Why I’m choosing Matt Castelli (Adirondack Daily Enterprise)

4) Congressional Corner with Matt Castelli (WAMC)

 

Top 3 Important Issues (Based on your opinion given your research):

1) Inflation

2) COVID-19 Restrictions

3) Immigration

 

Top 3 Industries Supporting Each Candidate:

Stefanik (R):

1) Retirees

2) Republican/Conservative Groups

3) Real Estate

 

Castelli (D):

1) Retirees

2) Lawyers

3) Education

 

https://www.opensecrets.org/races/industries?cycle=2022&id=NY21&spec=N

 

Major Changes Since Last Presentation:

Matt Castelli won the Democratic Party primary and is officially challenging Stefanik for her seat. He has significantly less cash on hand than Stefanik, partially due to having to fend off primary challenger Matt Purtorti. This will put him at a competitive disadvantage compared with Stefanik going into September.

 

Your Prediction as of Today:

Elise Stefanik (R)

 

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