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What will be the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war of 2022?

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<body><h2><a class="wiki-img" href="/mediadb/image/6d3fffc7e0354e728b1cb657ac37df12/"><img alt="Normandy Format Summit 2019 - Copyright: kremlin.ru (CC BY 4.0)" height="189" src="/media/displays/6d3fffc7e0354e728b1cb657ac37df12/wiki_medium.png" style="float:right" width="306"/></a>Possible futures</h2>
<p>Where is the Russo-Ukrainian War going? Five possible futures were mapped out by the Foreign Policy Research Institute in a report from April 2022:</p>
<ol>
<li><strong>Russia defeats Ukraine.</strong> A Russian victory is defined by Ukraine accepting Russia’s maximalist demands.</li>
<li><strong>Ukraine defeats Russia. </strong>A Ukrainian victory is defined by a return to the status before the February 24 invasion, in terms of territory.</li>
<li><strong>Negotiated Settlement.</strong> Ukraine renounces NATO membership and Russia renounces a regime change in the Ukraine. Both sides agree to disagree about the status of the contested areas. </li>
<li><strong>Russia declares victory and partly withdraws.</strong> Russia declares that it has achieved the goals of the "special military operation” and withdraw troops, except those in those areas it wishes to annex. </li>
<li><strong>War of Attrition.</strong> Both countries continue to fight with a stabilizing front, if not to victory, then to avoid defeat, at least throughout 2025.</li>
</ol>
<h2>Sources</h2>
<ol>
<li>Foreign Policy Research Institute: "<a href="https://www.fpri.org/article/2022/04/appraising-the-war-in-ukraine-and-likely-outcomes/" target="_blank">Appraising the War in Ukraine and likely Outcomes</a>" (April 2022)</li>
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