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What will be the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war of 2022?

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Please check if any final result proposed here has really happened. Is there a reliable source for this information? Is the proposed cut-off date before the time when the final result became certain beyond reasonable doubt? Did the trader proposing the final result refrain from cheating with quick last trades? If these checks are positive, please vote "Yes" for settlement else "No".
§ Judgement rule
The question will be judged by the closest realised one of the five scenarios defined in an article from April 2022: "Appraising the war in Ukraine and likely outcomes" as published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
Reference date: Feb. 23, 2022, 24:00 EET

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