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Will Tesla be overtaken by the Germans? Which rank will it have in 2021?

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<body><h2>Ex-post: The final result</h2>
<p>PA Consulting was severely wrong, as predicted correctly by the crowd. The forecast plummetted immediately after trading start in 2018, with three years to go. And in fact, Tesla remained #1 with 936,000 cars sold in 2021. Ze Germans do not even make top 3.</p>
<p>The top EV brands in 2021, according to EV-Volumes: [4]</p>
<ol>
<li>Tesla - 936,172</li>
<li>BYD - 593,878</li>
<li>SAIC-GM-Wuling - 456,123</li>
<li>Volkswagen - 319,735</li>
<li>BMW - 276,037</li>
<li>Mercedes-Benz - 228,144</li>
<li>SAIC - 226,963</li>
<li>Volvo - 189,115</li>
<li>Audi - 171,371</li>
<li>Hyundai - 159,343</li>
<li>Kia - 158,134</li>
</ol>
<h2>Ex-ante: Are the Germans winning?</h2>
<p><a class="wiki-img" href="/mediadb/image/170fa91072554471ab4345e976c0321e/"><img alt="SpaceX - Falcon Heavy Demo Mission - Copyright: Tesla CC0" height="108" src="/media/displays/170fa91072554471ab4345e976c0321e/wiki_medium.png" width="193"/></a>By 2021, German carmakers will push Tesla from the throne as the world's number one electric carmaker, says PA Consulting Group's Head of Automotive, <a href="https://www.linkedin.com/in/thomas-goettle-b749164/" target="_blank">Thomas Göttle</a>. Their key rationale is an expected onslaught of new electric models in the next three years.</p>
<p>Boldly, Göttle even forecasts that <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Elon_Musk" target="_blank">Elon Musk</a>'s company will lose its lead altogether and decline to just position #7 within only three years. At the same time, he expects Merzedes-Benz to ascend steeply from #5 to #1, possibly on the back of <a href="http://media.daimler.com/marsMediaSite/en/instance/ko.xhtml?oid=32963028">an interesting strategy</a> focusing on Daimler's battery production capability. </p>
<h2>The future ranking</h2>
<p>This will be the global ranking of electric car manufacturers according to the PA Consulting Group's report.</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col"><strong>Rank</strong></th>
<th scope="col"><strong>2019</strong></th>
<th scope="col"><strong>2021 (?)</strong></th>
</tr>
</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">1</td>
<td style="background-color:#ffffcc; text-align:center"><strong>Tesla</strong></td>
<td style="background-color:#ffffff; text-align:center">Daimler</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="background-color:#ffffff; text-align:center">2</td>
<td>Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi</td>
<td style="text-align:center">BMW</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">3</td>
<td style="text-align:center">BMW</td>
<td>Renault/Nissan/Mitsubishi</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">4</td>
<td style="text-align:center">Hyundai/Kia</td>
<td style="text-align:center">Volkswagen</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">5</td>
<td style="text-align:center">Daimler</td>
<td style="text-align:center">Volvo</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">6</td>
<td style="text-align:center">Volvo</td>
<td style="text-align:center">Toyota</td>
</tr>
<tr>
<td style="text-align:center">7</td>
<td style="text-align:center">Volkswagen</td>
<td style="background-color:#ffffcc; text-align:center"><strong>Tesla</strong></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Source: PA Consulting Group</em></p>
<hr/>
<h2>Sources</h2>
<ol>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.paconsulting.com/newsroom/expert-quotes/bloomberg-german-electric-cars-could-catch-up-with-tesla-in-just-a-few-years-12-july-2018/" target="_blank">The CO2 Emissions Challenge</a></strong> - <em>PA Consulting Group</em></li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-07-12/german-e-cars-will-catch-up-with-tesla-in-coming-years-study" target="_blank">German Electric Cars Could Catch Up With Tesla in Just a Few Years</a></strong> - <em>Bloomberg, July 13, 2018</em></li>
<li><strong><a href="https://www.businessinsider.de/mercedes-reveals-plans-to-dominate-ev-market-2018-1?r=US&IR=T" target="_blank">Mercedes just revealed how it plans to conquer electric cars</a></strong> - <em>Business Insider, January 30, 2018</em></li>
<li><strong><a href="https://insideevs.com/news/564639/global-plugin-car-sales-december2021/" target="_blank">Global Plug-In Car Sales 6.5 Million In 2021</a> - </strong><em>InsideEVs.com, February 2, 2022</em></li>
</ol></body>

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