Will the Supreme Court accept a prediction markets case by the end of the semester?
Settlement proposals
Please check if any final result proposed here has really happened. Is there a reliable source for this information? Is the proposed cut-off date before the time when the final result became certain beyond reasonable doubt? Did the trader proposing the final result refrain from cheating with quick last trades? If these checks are positive, please vote "Yes" for settlement else "No".
§ Judgement rule
There are several court cases regarding the legality of prediction markets. Most are initiated by state AGs or gambling commissions and involve sports betting such as,
https://www.politico.com/news/2026/09/02/new-jersey-supreme-court-prediction-markets-01061774
This case will resolve to YES if the Supreme Court of the United States grants certiorari in a case explicitly concerning the legality, regulation, or jurisdictional authority over prediction markets. Here is a description of SCOTUS procedures,
https://www.scotusblog.com/2026/04/how-the-justices-decide-which-cases-to-decide-an-explainer/
The certiorari grant must be publicly confirmed via the official SCOTUS docket or orders list, and verifiable through credible legal reporting or the Supreme Court’s official website. The case does not need to be heard, scheduled, or decided to qualify.
I will use my discretion to determine if a case involves prediction markets. I also may need to roll back the expiry time (refunding trades made after that time) if I do not resolve this promptly after a YES outcome occurs.
Reference date:
Dec. 7, 2026, 24:00 EST
No result proposals yet
Propose final result (trigger settlement)
Is the final result now certain? If so, please enter a proposal to settle this question, citing the source of your information. In any case, make sure to enter the date and time when this result was beyond reasonable doubt to ensure a fair settlement.