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Will the new Microsoft tablet dominate Android tablets?

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<p><img src="http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/0/04/Microsoft_Surface.jpg/320px-Microsoft_Surface.jpg" alt="Microsoft Surface RT with touch cover - Wikimedia: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license" title="Microsoft Surface RT with touch cover - Wikimedia: Creative Commons Attribution 2.0 Generic license"/></p>
<h2 id="h_background">Background</h2>
<p>Microsoft is expected to launch a Windows 8 tablet later in 2012. As the differentiating factor versus the current market leader, Apple's iPad, the tablet will come pre-installed with Microsoft Office. </p>
<p>Recently, <strong>Kathryn Huberty, a Morgan Stanley analyst</strong>, opined that the new Windows tablet will overtake Android's tablet sales rapidly and become the #2 in the tablet market, as the strategic inclusion of MS Office would attract significant first buyers from the business segment. Morgan Stanley expects future tablet market shares as follows: Apple 46%, Microsoft 25%, Android 22% and all others combined 7%. [2]</p>
<h2 id="h_analysis">Analysis</h2>
<h3 id="h_comparative-developments-in-the">Comparative developments in the smartphone sector</h3>
<p>The smartphone segment has seen a race between Android, iOS and Windows before, with a rather different outcome:</p>
<p><strong>Enter iOS</strong> -- In the beginning of 2007, iOS entered the smartphone market with the Apple iPhone. At this point, Symbian and RIM have a combined market share of approximately 80%, with Windows playing a minor role at 12%. </p>
<p><strong>Enter Android</strong> -- In the third quarter of 2008, i.e. 18 months later, Android enters the race. By this time iOS had reached a market share of 13%, mostly at the expense of Symbian. In only two years, by the third quarter of 2010, Android was able to overtake iOS the latter still growing but at a slower pace. MS Windows already suffering a market share erosion ton to 11%. </p>
<p><strong>Result</strong> -- By Q1 2012, Android again more than doubled its market share, reaching approximately 60%. The OS effectively wiped out Symbian, RIM and Windows. Hence Window’s tight integration of MS Outlook did nothing to avoid market share plummeting to 2%.</p>
<h2 id="h_developments">Developments</h2>
<p><strong>2013 Quarter 1 Results</strong> -- During the first quarter of 2013, 17.6 million Android tablet devices were sold and 3 million Windows tablet devices were sold. [1] Windows 8 tablet market share was 7,5 % versus 43,4 % for Android. The dynamics of the tablet market trended towards smaller devices where Microsoft has no product yet.</p>
<h2 id="h_result">Result</h2>
<p>Kathryn Huberty of Morgan Stanley was astronomically off when predicting that "Microsoft shifts from a challenged to a best-positioned company." [2]  In reality, Android had a market share of 62% with 121 million units shipped, which is 30 times more than Microsoft's 2% with only 4 million units. [3] </p>
<h2 id="h_resources">Resources</h2>
<ol><li><a href="http://www.pcworld.com/article/2036367/windows-8-tablet-sales-not-terrible-so-far.html">Windows 8 tablet sales</a>  - PCWorld, 25 April 2013
</li><li><a href="http://www.google.at/url?sa=t&rct=j&q=&esrc=s&source=web&cd=1&ved=0CDAQFjAA&url=http%3A%2F%2Flinkback.morganstanley.com%2Fweb%2Fsendlink%2Fwebapp%2FBMServlet%3Ffile%3Dd614826u-3odb-g000-b1ed-002655214000%26store%3D0%26d%3DUwBSZXNlYXJjaAA0MzI1NTg%253D%26user%3Dkgdo4nhav6s1-81%26__gda__%3D1464644568_4b89eefacb98aea2fe1033ac691c184c&ei=JM8uU-TlPOvT4QSV5oHIBA&usg=AFQjCNHKaqESvgdob0FhEWrvLelNbER7pQ">Tablet Landscape Evolution - Window(s) of Opportunity</a> - Morgan Stanley Research, 21 May 2012
</li><li><a href="http://www.computerworld.com/s/article/9246714/Android_takes_62_share_of_tablet_market_in_2013_Apple_s_share_declines">Android takes 62% share of tablet market in 2013</a> - Computerworld, 3 March 2014</li></ol>

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