New Demarchy FAQ
A structured list of the most common questions of newcomers with short answers.
Where is New Demarchy positioned on the political spectrum?
New Demarchy neither favours left-wing nor right-wing ideologies of the political spectrum, it is strictly evidence-based. Empirical evidence from 28,000 political predictions shows that persons who believe in a left-wing or right-wing ideology produce significantly worse forecasts than open-minded, non-partisan thinkers.
What is the link between forecasting and policy decision-making?
Policy-makers base their decisions on their personal expectations about the relevant future. The better one's predictions, the better one's decisions. Prediction competitions train and measure this skillset.
Is there a political party for New Demarchy? Can I join it?
A demarchic deliberation about the founding of such a political party has started in December 2015 for public participation here: New demarchy foundation. After its foundation, everybody can join and is welcome, as everybody is an expert in something.
Can I participate with a screen name identity?
Yes, use your real name or a screen name at your free choice. However, participation with two or more identities in any single competition is forbidden.
Can I participate free of charges?
Yes, taking part in prediction questions and competitions is free.
Why a random selection of decision makers (sortition) instead of picking the highest ranked expert?
Sortition gives more protection against corruption as individual experts may rank first for long periods. It motivates to participate in a field because there is always a chance to be the chosen decision maker.
What is the chance that the selected decision maker has no clue about that specific topic?
Isn't that the description of a representative democracy? Ok, in earnest: Decision makers must meet minimum requirements for sortition eligibility (e.g. number of predictions, percent of correct predictions, expertise points earned).
Why should New Demarchy's rep in a government follow the decision maker's resolution?
Before the appointment of such representative, he must enter into a personal legal agreement with New Demarchy which will also stipulate guarantees and penalties compatible with local legislation.
Software and Service
Who pays for New Demarchy's development and hosting?
New Demarchy is being developed and hosted by Prediki which uses the income from its commercial market research business to sponsor and bootstrap the initiative.
Is New Demarchy based on free or open-source software?
Prediki recognises the need for full transparency and is committed to open its source code, including a license for non-commercial use when New Demarchy gets a representative in a national government body.
Could predictions be manipulated by the administrators of Prediki?
Prediki is fully transparent and open to scrutiny: everybody sees everybody's activity, all processes and algorithms are fully self-evident. Prediki also plans to move onto a distributed platform concurrently with source code opening (see above).