How effective will be the vaccination against SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
The question shall be judged by the efficacy of the first vaccine approved by a public health authority in either the US, the European Union, Switzerland or the UK, on or before 31 December 2021
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2021, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
● No approval
12.15 %
● 0 - 20%
11.70 %
● 20 - 40%
14.76 %
● 40 - 60%
15.15 %
● 60 - 80%
25.65 %
● 80 - 100%
20.56 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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IMPORTANT!

IF YOU ARE NOT A MEDICAL PROFESSIONAL, EPIDEMOLOGIST OR QUANT ANALYST, PLEASE DO NOT PARTICIPATE IN THIS PREDICTION MARKET.
  If you want to help, feel free to invite medical professionals whom you know personally to contribute their efficacy prediction and reasoning to this prediction market.

Background of first SARS outbreak

Severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) caused 774 deaths in 32 countries in a single fall-to-spring period 2002–2003. Governments responded with travel restrictions. Effects on the global economy were significant.

SSevere acute respiratory syndrome-associated coronavirus virion. - Copyright: Roper/Rehmix years later scientists reported in a meta study that they had not yet found an effective vaccine against SARS-CoV. [1]

Current status for SARS-CoV-2

Several players are currently preparing various vaccine platforms for animal testing and subsequent clinical trials. There  is no expert consensus which possible approach will be faster or more successful. Seperate prediction markets for these strategies may be necessary. Further, all these players lack capacity for late-stage clinical trials required by regulatory agencies and for manufacturing of the doses needed. The investment is expected to be several billion US dollars. [2]

Challenge

Will there be an effective vaccine against SARS-CoV-2 within two years for the first outbreak and how efficient will it be?

Sources

  1. Roper R, Rehm K. "SARS vaccines: where are we?" (2009)
  2. Amanat F, Krammer F."SARS-CoV-2 Vaccines: Status Report." Immunity, 06 April 2020

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Reasons and arguments Analyze

Top 5 participants (Ranking) Credits
1. zhijuan wu 43,467.08
2. Shiju John 1,375.29
3. Sabrine Poulson 690.07
4. Guy D. 0.00
5. camille rodriguez -339.40
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Question owner:
Hubertus Hofkirchner
Moderator:
Helene Meier
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