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How many 4k TV (Ultra HD TV) units will be sold in 2016?

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<h2 id="h_your-challenge">Your challenge</h2>
<p>Predict the future of 4K television: will the steep initial growth path continue?</p>
<h2 id="h_some-background-information">Some background information</h2>
<p><a class="wiki-img" href="/mediadb/image/b3cca1a4105145ec99cf76bd87c6b1d2/"><img src="/media/displays/b3cca1a4105145ec99cf76bd87c6b1d2/wiki_medium.jpg" alt="4K Television - Copyright: By Janitors from Flickr [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons" title="4K Television - Copyright: By Janitors from Flickr [CC BY 2.0 (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0)], via Wikimedia Commons"/></a></p>
<p>Worldwide sales of 4K Ultra High Definition (4K UHD) sets grew by almost 160% in 2015 to a total 32 million units, equivalent to 14% of all TV sets sold. In general, analysts expect adoption of 4K to be much faster than that of HD. [2]</p>
<p>However, content for 4K format is still scarce, raising doubts if the growth will continue beyond the early adopter segement. [3] </p>
<h2 id="h_historic-4k-tv-set-sales">Historic 4k TV set sales</h2>
<p>How will this play out for 2016 4K television sales? Futuresource predicts sales of 140 million by 2020 which would correspond to 52% - more than half - of the expected future TV set market. [1] </p>
<table><tr><th><strong>Year</strong></th><th><strong>2014</strong></th><th><strong>2015</strong></th><th><strong>2016e</strong></th><th><strong>2017e</strong></th><th><strong>2018e</strong></th><th><strong>2018e</strong></th><th><strong>2020e</strong></th></tr>
<tr><td>4K TV Sets Sold (million units)</td><td>12</td><td>32</td><td>?</td><td/><td/><td/><td><em>Futuresource: 140 ?</em></td></tr>
<tr><td>Growth percentage</td><td><em>n/a</em></td><td><em>+160%</em></td><td><em>?</em></td><td/><td/><td/><td/></tr>
</table>
<p><em>Source: [1]</em></p>
<p>However, total TV sales fell by -2% from 233 million in 2014 to 229 million in 2015, according to Futuresource data. Nonetheless, they assume an annual growth of 3% per year to 269 million TV sets in 2020. What if this growth does not substantiate?</p>
<h2 id="h_definition-of-4k-tv">Definition of 4K TV</h2>
<p>"4K" is emerging as the most common term for the new TV generation. Manufacturers use a confusing array of names such as ultra-high-definition television, Ultra HD, 4k UHD, UHDTV, UHD-1, Super Hi-Vision, and 2160p. 4K signifies a resolution of 3840px rows × 2160px lines.</p>
<p>Wikipedia article: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/4K_resolution">4K television</a> </p>
<h2 id="h_external-sources">External sources</h2>
<ol><li><a href="http://futuresource-consulting.com/2016-04-Worldwide-TV-Market-3791.html">4K UHD TV Sales Leapt by 160% in 2015</a> - Futuresource, 18 April 2016
</li><li><a href="http://www.businessinsider.com/4k-tv-shipments-are-taking-off-2014-5?IR=T">4K TV Shipments Are Ramping Up Much Faster</a> - Business Insider, 14 April 2014
</li><li><a href="http://www.express.co.uk/life-style/science-technology/678797/Euro-2016-4K-Ultra-High-Definition-Television-Waste-Of-Money">A new 4K UHD television might be the biggest waste of money</a> - Express, 10 June 2016</li></ol>

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