Your challenge

Predict the future of 4K television: will the steep initial growth path continue?

Some background information

Worldwide sales of 4K Ultra High Definition (4K UHD) sets grew by almost 160% in 2015 to a total 32 million units, equivalent to 14% of all TV sets sold. In general, analysts expect adoption of 4K to be much faster than that of HD. [2]

However, content for 4K format is still scarce, raising doubts if the growth will continue beyond the early adopter segement. [3]

Historic 4k TV set sales

How will this play out for 2016 4K television sales? Futuresource predicts sales of 140 million by 2020 which would correspond to 52% - more than half - of the expected future TV set market. [1]

Source: [1]

However, total TV sales fell by -2% from 233 million in 2014 to 229 million in 2015, according to Futuresource data. Nonetheless, they assume an annual growth of 3% per year to 269 million TV sets in 2020. What if this growth does not substantiate?

Definition of 4K TV

"4K" is emerging as the most common term for the new TV generation. Manufacturers use a confusing array of names such as ultra-high-definition television, Ultra HD, 4k UHD, UHDTV, UHD-1, Super Hi-Vision, and 2160p. 4K signifies a resolution of 3840px rows × 2160px lines.

Wikipedia article: 4K television

External sources

1. 4K UHD TV Sales Leapt by 160% in 2015 - Futuresource, 18 April 2016
2. 4K TV Shipments Are Ramping Up Much Faster - Business Insider, 14 April 2014
3. A new 4K UHD television might be the biggest waste of money - Express, 10 June 2016