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When will the UK declare the Brexit?

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<h2 id="h_the-forecasting-challenge">The Forecasting Challenge</h2>
<p>When will the Brexit happen? Will it happen at all? Will British politicians abide by the result of the referendum or will they ignore it?</p>
<h2 id="h_brexit-background">Brexit background</h2>
<p><a class="wiki-img" href="/mediadb/image/c936c8d26b6f40adb6a95878bc1bc043/"><img src="/media/displays/c936c8d26b6f40adb6a95878bc1bc043/wiki_medium.jpg" alt="Remainers - Copyright: Daily Mail" title="Remainers - Copyright: Daily Mail"/></a>In a national referendum on 23 June 2016, a majority of 51.9% of British citizens voted to withdraw from the European Union ("Brexit). An immediate second Brexit referendum was demanded by an online petition but swiftly ruled out by UK government. (2)</p>
<p>For more background: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_Kingdom_European_Union_membership_referendum,_2016">Wikipedia</a></p>
<h2 id="h_brexit-timing-considerations">Brexit timing considerations</h2>
<p>As the next step, the UK government has to notify the European Council <em>formally</em> of the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU, as required by Article 50 of the Treaty on the European Union. (1)</p>
<p>It is uncertain if and when this notification will be realized. The UK's incumbent Prime Minister David Cameron stated that the withdrawal negotiations - thus the formal notification - will be the next Prime Minister's task. His successor will be determined at the UK Conservative Party leadership elections in October 2016.  (3)</p>
<p>On 11 July 2016 David Cameron announced he will leave Downing Street 10 two days later. Home Secretary Theresa May will succeed him in Office. (5)</p>
<h2 id="h_final-settlement">Final Settlement</h2>
<p>Britain triggered article 50 on the 29th of March, for more information go <a href="https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2017/mar/20/theresa-may-to-trigger-article-50-on-29-march">here</a>.</p>
<h2 id="h_external-sources">External sources</h2>
<ol><li><a href="https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Consolidated_version_of_the_Treaty_on_European_Union/Title_VI:_Final_Provisions#Article_50">The Treaty on European Union, Article 50</a> - Wikisource
</li><li><a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-what-is-eu-referendum-petition-david-cameron-a7105596.html">David Cameron rules out possibility of second EU referendum</a> - The Independent, 27 June 2016
</li><li><a href="http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-no-need-uk-send-formal-letter-exit-process-eu-referendum-david-cameron-a7103991.html">EU says 'no need' for UK to send formal letter</a> - The Independent, 26 June 2016
</li><li><a href="http://www.tagesschau.de/inland/merkel-zdf-brexit-101.html">Merkel rechnet fest mit Brexit</a> - Tagesschau.de, 10 July 2016
</li><li><a href="http://edition.cnn.com/2016/07/11/europe/britain-politics-may-leadsom/">David Cameron to resign Wednesday as Theresa May to become British PM</a> - CNN.com, 11 July 2016
</li><li><a href="http://www.bbc.com/news/business-37538459">Pound falls as Theresa May indicates Brexit date</a> - bbc.com, 30 October 2016</li></ol>

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