Modification proposals - Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

Alfie Meier, Master of Story & Suspense

Modification proposal 10 accepted on 2020/09/26 03:05:45

The last change which went through with a very narrow vote of 51/49 created a problem. It rendered the question unusable with the appended yes/no answers. I am proposing two modifications: 1.Let us re-instate the original version to get rid of the unsuitable yes/now. 2. Let's replace Gallup with a combined source, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight has such a composite. They describe here how they improve on the various individual approval trackers and it has the same history back to Truman in the year 1945: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-tra…
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The last change which went through with a very narrow vote of 51/49 created a problem. It rendered the question unusable with the appended yes/no answers. I am proposing two modifications: 1.Let us re-instate the original version to get rid of the unsuitable yes/now. 2. Let's replace Gallup with a combined source, Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight has such a composite. They describe here how they improve on the various individual approval trackers and it has the same history back to Truman in the year 1945: https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-were-tracking-donald-trumps-approval-ratings/
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Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

Judgement rule

I propose a change/modification to the Judgement rule. I do not feel it is fair that only one polling firm (Gallup) is used to determine the final approval rating of Donald Trump. I belive it should be sum total of several polling firms to get an accurate and true result. With a lot of research I have found that Rasmussen has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".
The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this. Here is to the source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approv…

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Note: The Gallup source originally defined for this question's judgement could be biased and will not be used: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Ap…

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (14.29%) Very bad

2. (14.29%) Bad

3. (14.29%) Average

4. (14.29%) Good

5. (14.29%) Very good

6. ~~Yes~~

7. No

Time zone

America/New_York

Reference date:

2021/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

95.43% Yes

4.57% No

3.93% Participation
Anonymous

Modification proposal 9 accepted on 2020/09/23 00:03:12

I propose a change/modification to the Judgement rule. I do not feel it is fair that only one polling firm (Gallup) is used to determine the final approval rating of Donald Trump. I belive it should be sum total of several polling firms to get an accurate and true result. With a lot of research I have found that Rasmussen has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
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I propose a change/modification to the Judgement rule. I do not feel it is fair that only one polling firm (Gallup) is used to determine the final approval rating of Donald Trump. I belive it should be sum total of several polling firms to get an accurate and true result. With a lot of research I have found that Rasmussen has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."
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  I dont believe the proposal suggested just Rasmussen. The proposal stated it should be a sum total of several polling firms.to get a true and accurate result.. Using just the Gallup polls is not being neutral!!!!. They have a history of being inaccurate.
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  https://bongino.com/if-the-polls-are-as-wrong-as-…
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Question

Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

Judgement rule

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".
I propose a change/modification to the Judgement rule. I do not feel it is fair that only one polling firm (Gallup) is used to determine the final approval rating of Donald Trump. I belive it should be sum total of several polling firms to get an accurate and true result. With a lot of research I have found that Rasmussen has an "unchallenged record for both integrity and accuracy."

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Ap…

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (14.29%) Very bad

2. (14.29%) Bad

3. (14.29%) Average

4. (14.29%) Good

5. (14.29%) Very good

6. (14.29%) Yes

7. (14.29%) No

Time zone

America/New_York

Reference date:

2021/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

50.54% Yes

49.46% No

4.58% Participation
Antonia Marina

Modification proposal 8 accepted on 2018/02/08 07:24:25

Trump's term in office is set to end on January 20, 2021
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Donal…
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Trump's term in office is set to end on January 20, 2021 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Presidency_of_Donald_Trump
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- 6 years ago
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Question

Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

Judgement rule

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (20.00%) Very bad

2. (20.00%) Bad

3. (20.00%) Average

4. (20.00%) Good

5. (20.00%) Very good

Time zone

America/New_York

Reference date:

~~2017/01/20 24:00~~
2021/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

100.00% Yes

0.00% No

0.87% Participation
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 7 accepted on 2016/12/22 10:42:00

Simplify
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Simplify
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- 7 years ago
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Question

Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

Judgement rule

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~Very bad ... 49-~~ (20.00%) Very bad

2. ~~Bad ... 50-53~~ (20.00%) Bad

3. ~~Average ... 54-57~~ (20.00%) Average

4. ~~Good ... 58~~ (20.00%) Good

5. ~~Very good ... 59+~~ (20.00%) Very good

Time zone

America/New_York

Reference date:

2017/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 6 accepted on 2016/12/22 08:55:07

Fixed indicator for very bad.
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Fixed indicator for very bad.
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- 7 years ago
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Question

Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

Judgement rule

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~Very bad ... 48-~~ (20.00%) Very bad ... 49-

2. (20.00%) Bad ... 50-53

3. (20.00%) Average ... 54-57

4. (20.00%) Good ... 58

5. (20.00%) Very good ... 59+

Time zone

America/New_York

Reference date:

2017/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 5 accepted on 2016/12/22 08:49:22

Added score
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Added score
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- 7 years ago
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Question

Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

Judgement rule

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~Very bad~~ (20.00%) Very bad ... 48-

2. ~~Bad~~ (20.00%) Bad ... 50-53

3. ~~Average~~ (20.00%) Average ... 54-57

4. ~~Good~~ (20.00%) Good ... 58

5. ~~Very good~~ (20.00%) Very good ... 59+

Time zone

America/New_York

Reference date:

2017/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 4 accepted on 2016/12/22 08:28:38

Request qual input
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Request qual input
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- 7 years ago
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Question

~~Will Donald Trump be a good President?~~
Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

Judgement rule

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (20.00%) Very bad

2. (20.00%) Bad

3. (20.00%) Average

4. (20.00%) Good

5. (20.00%) Very good

Time zone

America/New_York

Reference date:

2017/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 3 accepted on 2016/12/20 09:08:04

Indicator re-specified as "final rating" to allow for result-oriented opinion formation.
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Indicator re-specified as "final rating" to allow for result-oriented opinion formation.
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Question

Will Donald Trump be a good President?

Judgement rule

The question shall be judged by the average approval rating over Donald Trump's first presidency term starting 20 January 2017 as determined by Gallup USA.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".
The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by Gallup USA at the end of his first presidency term. expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Ap…

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Question type

Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. (20.00%) Very bad

2. (20.00%) Bad

3. (20.00%) Average

4. (20.00%) Good

5. (20.00%) Very good

Time zone

America/New_York

Reference date:

2017/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required
Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist

Modification proposal 2 accepted on 2016/12/20 08:19:56

Incorporated an empirical measure
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Incorporated an empirical measure
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- 7 years ago
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Question

~~Will Trump be a good President?~~
Will Donald Trump be a good President?

Judgement rule

~~What do you think?~~
The question shall be judged by the average approval rating over Donald Trump's first presidency term starting 20 January 2017 as determined by Gallup USA.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Ap…

If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average".

Question type

~~Two alternatives~~
Ordered answer scale

Answers

1. ~~Yes~~ (20.00%) Very bad New colour

2. No (20.00%) Bad New colour

3. (20.00%) Average

4. (20.00%) Good

5. (20.00%) Very good

Time zone

~~Pacific/Auckland~~

America/New_York

Reference date:

~~2016/12/01 24:00~~
2017/01/20 24:00

Result expected on

~~2016/12/06 24:00~~
2021/01/20 24:00

Trading session (optional):

until
Supported

No voting required

Modification proposal or Copy question