Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this. Here is to the source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average". Note: The Gallup source originally defined for this question's judgement could be biased and will not be used: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx
Reference date: Jan. 20, 2021, 24:00 EST

Answer options

Widget Price
 Very bad
71.30 %
 Bad
14.79 %
 Average
6.89 %
 Good
5.33 %
 Very good
1.66 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

Trump meets Obama - Copyright: Wikipedia: Jesusemen Oni / VOA Public Domain

Background

For objectivity, this question will be judged by Trump's approval rating after his 1st term, compared to that all prior presidents' since 1945. So, you must focus on Trumps full four year term. As always, please read the judgement rule § carefully before doing your trade or posting your argument.

Here is Trump's latest weekly approval rating according to Gallup and here is a composite approval rating as combined by FiveThirtyEight.

Indicator of Presidential Quality

FivethirtyEight, Nate Silver (Agreed Judgement Source)

Nate Silver modelled a combined presidential approval rating from several research institutes, intending to eliminate partisan bias.

Rank President Start 538
1st Term
1 Dwight Eisenhower 1953 78.1
2 Ronald Reagan 1981 62.0
3 Bill Clinton 1993 58.8
4 John Kennedy 1961 58.2
5 Harry Truman 1945 57.2
6 George H.W. Bush 1989 54.7
7 Richard Nixon 1969 51.7
8 Gerald Ford 1974 51.5
9 Barack Obama 2009 51.4
10 George W. Bush 2001 50.1
11 Lyndon Johnson 1963 42.1
12 Jimmy Carter 1977 33.7

Source: 538

Since the Prediki community voted 93% for a judgement rule change from Gallup to a combined source, Trump's 538 1st term approval rating will result in the following verbal ratings:

  • Very good: 58,8% or more
  • Good: 54.7% to 58.7%
  • Average: 51.8% to 54.6%
  • Bad: 50.2% to 51.7%
  • Very bad: 50.1% or less

Gallup (obsolete judgment source)

The most accessible indicator of a presidential standing for the 12 U.S. presidents since 1953 is Gallup's bi-weekly approval/disapproval survey. [1] The table below shows the last approval rating for each president at the end of his first term (for Lyndon Johnson after 1400 days in office).

Table: Presidential Approval Score At the End of Their First Term (Sorted)

Rank President Start Gallup
1st Term
Final
Approval
Full
presidency

average
1 Dwight Eisenhower 1953 79 59 70
2 Ronald Reagan 1981 62 57 50
3 Richard Nixon 1969 59 24 56
4 John Kennedy 1961 58 58 70
5 Bill Clinton 1993 58 65 50
6 Harry Truman 1945 57 32 56
7 George W. Bush 2001 53 29 62
8 Gerald Ford 1974 53 53 47
9 Barack Obama 2009 51 59 48
10 George H.W. Bush 1989 49 49 61
11 Lyndon Johnson 1963 41 43 74
12 Jimmy Carter 1977 31 34 46

Source: Gallup

The re-election campaign gives most incumbent presidents some uplift around the end of the first term. Gallup's time series chart is recommended reading to understand these dynamics. [2]

According to the data above, the following Gallup approval ratings were the original source:

  • Very good: 58% or more
  • Good: 57%
  • Average: 54 to 56%
  • Bad: 50 to 53%
  • Very bad: 49% or less

Chart

美國歷任總統支持率 - Copyright: Prediki / Gallup Data

External sources

  1. Gallup: Presidential Approval Ratings
  2. Gallup: Presidential Job Approval Center
  3. FiveThirtyEight: How (un)popular is Donald Trump?
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