What relationship will the UK and the EU agree after the Brexit?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

If the UK notifies the EU of its intent to withdraw from the EU, the following subsequent outcomes are possible in accordance to the EU Treaties: 1. “European Economic Area” (EEA) means that the UK joins as a party to the Agreement on a European Economic Area (Norway model). 2. “Bilateral Agreements” means a set of bilateral agreements between UK and the EU (Switzerland model). 3. Withdraws means the UK withdraws its notification to withdraw from the EU within 2 years. 4. The EU may extend the withdrawal agreement negotiation period beyond 2 years. 5. The withdrawal may become effective 2 years after the Brexit notification without the UK and the EU reaching an agreement about a special relationship. If the UK does not notify the EU of its intent to withdraw within a reasonable period, the question shall be settled prematurely at the market prices prevalent before such notification becomes unrealistic.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2019, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
 Bilateral agreements between UK and EU
37.05 %
 Extension of UK/EU negotiations
35.09 %
 UK withdraws from withdrawal
14.95 %
 UK joins European Economic Area
8.30 %
 No agreement about a special relationship
4.58 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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Background

Boris Johnson, M.P. for Henley with Liberal Democrat M.P. John Hemming at a demonstration against hospital closures - Copyright: johnhemming on Flickr

On June the 23rd, 2016 the British people have declared in a national referendum (Brexit) that they wanted to withdraw from the European Union. 51.9% of them have voted for “Leave”. For more background: Wikipedia

Next steps

Now the British government formally has to notify the European Council of the UK’s intention to withdraw from the EU in accordance with Article 50 of the Treaty of the European Union. (1)

The new British PM Theresa May, who has replaced David Cameron on 13. July 2016, said her priorities will be to administer Britain's exit from the European Union. (3) Next, the UK and the European Union have to find a special agreement about their future relationship.

The following outcomes are possible:

  1. The UK joins the “European Economic Area” (EEA) (Norway model).
  2. There will be a bilateral agreement between the UK and the EU (Switzerland model).
  3. The UK withdraws its notification to withdraw from the EU.
  4. The EU may extend the withdrawal agreement negotiation period beyond 2 years.
  5. The withdrawal may become effective 2 years after the Brexit notification without the UK and the EU reaching an agreement about a special relationship.

Also it is still possible the UK does not notify the EU of its intent to withdraw from the EU. But the new PM May said: ""Brexit means Brexit, and we're going to make a success of it. There will be no attempts to remain inside the EU. No attempts to rejoin it by the back door. No second referendum." (3)

External sources

  1. The Treaty on European Union, Article 50 - Wikisource
  2. Wie kann ein Staat aus der EU austreten? - spiegel.de, 24 June 2016
  3. David Cameron to resign Wednesday as Theresa May to become British PM - CNN.com, 11 July 2016
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