Will Joe Biden be a good President, and why?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Joe Biden as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2025. If FiveThirtyEight has no approval rating statistic, the question will be judged by the ranking on Gallup's presidential job approval center. Should Joe Biden's presidency end early, it shall be the last rating prior to this. If Joe Biden's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (12-14) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (10-11) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-9 will be judged as "Average".
Reference date: Jan. 20, 2025, 24:00 EST

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Wiki article

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Joe Biden - Copyright: Gage Skidmore | Wikimedia CommonsBackground

For objectivity, this question will be judged by Biden's approval rating after his 1st term, compared to that all prior presidents' since 1945. So, you must focus on the full four year term.

As always, please read the judgement rule § carefully before doing your trade or posting your argument.


Indicator of Presidential Quality

FivethirtyEight, Nate Silver

Nate Silver modelled a combined presidential approval rating from several research institutes, intending to eliminate partisan bias.

Rank President Start 538
1st Term
1 Dwight Eisenhower 1953 78.1
2 Ronald Reagan 1981 62.0
3 Bill Clinton 1993 58.8
4 John Kennedy 1961 58.2
5 Harry Truman 1945 57.2
6 George H.W. Bush 1989 54.7
7 Richard Nixon 1969 51.7
8 Gerald Ford 1974 51.5
9 Barack Obama 2009 51.4
10 George W. Bush 2001 50.1
11 Lyndon Johnson 1963 42.1
12 Donald Trump 2016 38.6
13 Jimmy Carter 1977 33.7

Source: 538

 Biden's 538 1st term approval rating will result in the following verbal ratings:

  • Very good: 58,8% or more
  • Good: 57.2% to 58.7%
  • Average: 51.5% to 57.1%
  • Bad: 42.2% to 51.4%
  • Very bad: 42.1% or less

Sources

  1. Gallup: Presidential Approval Ratings
  2. Gallup: Presidential Job Approval Center
  3. 538: How popular is Joe Biden?
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Question owner:
Alfie Meier
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Countdown to final result Jan. 21, 2025, 00:00:00 2025/01/20 24:00 EST