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Will Joe Biden be a good President, and why?

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  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

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Joe Biden - Copyright: Gage Skidmore | Wikimedia Commons Link: /mediadb/image/fea38ce410524893ae19c3bce219c075/

Link: /mediadb/image/6379abb260874e39838f19f0207f3999/

Background

For objectivity, this question will be judged by Biden's Trump's approval rating after his 1st term, compared to that all prior presidents' since 1945. So, you must focus on the Trumps full four year term.

As always, please read the judgement rule § carefully before doing your trade or posting your argument.

Here is Trump's latest weekly approval rating according to Gallup Link: http://news.gallup.com/poll/203207/trump-job-approval-weekly.aspx and here is a composite approval rating as combined by FiveThirtyEight Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ .


Indicator of Presidential Quality

FivethirtyEight, Nate Silver (Agreed Judgement Source)

Nate Silver modelled a combined presidential approval rating Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ from several research institutes, intending to eliminate partisan bias.

Rank President Start 538
1st Term
1 Dwight Eisenhower 1953 78.1
2 Ronald Reagan 1981 62.0
3 Bill Clinton 1993 58.8
4 John Kennedy 1961 58.2
5 Harry Truman 1945 57.2
6 George H.W. Bush 1989 54.7
7 Richard Nixon 1969 51.7
8 Gerald Ford 1974 51.5
9 Barack Obama 2009 51.4
10 George W. Bush 2001 50.1
11 Lyndon Johnson 1963 42.1
12
Donald Trump (as of 8th Jan 2021)201641.913
Jimmy Carter 1977 33.7

Source: 538

Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo Biden's  Link: https://www.prediki.com/questions/Will-Donald-Trump-be-a-good-President-and-why/ Since the Prediki community voted 93% for a judgement rule change from Gallup to a combined source, Trump's 

538 1st term approval rating will result in the following verbal ratings:
  • Very good: 58,8% or more
  • Good: 57.2% 54.7% to 58.7%
  • Average: 51.5% to 57.1%
  • Bad: 42.2% to 51.4%
  • Very bad: 42.1% or less
  • Sources

    51.8% to 54.6%
  • Bad: 50.2% to 51.7%
  • Very bad: 50.1% or less
  • Gallup (obsolete judgment source)

    The most accessible indicator of a presidential standing for the 12 U.S. presidents since 1953 is Gallup's bi-weekly approval/disapproval survey. [1] The table below shows the last approval rating for each president at the end of his first term (for Lyndon Johnson after 1400 days in office).

    Table: Presidential Approval Score At the End of Their First Term (Sorted)

    RankPresidentStartGallup
    1st Term
    Final
    Approval
    Full
    presidency

    average
    1Dwight Eisenhower1953795970
    2Ronald Reagan1981625750
    3Richard Nixon1969592456
    4John Kennedy1961585870
    5Bill Clinton1993586550
    6Harry Truman1945573256
    7George W. Bush2001532962
    8Gerald Ford1974535347
    9Barack Obama2009515948
    10George H.W. Bush1989494961
    11Lyndon Johnson1963414374
    12Jimmy Carter1977313446

    Source: Gallup Link: https://news.gallup.com/interactives/185273/r.aspx

    The re-election campaign gives most incumbent presidents some uplift around the end of the first term. Gallup's time series chart is recommended reading to understand these dynamics. [2]

    According to the data above, the following Gallup approval ratings were the original source:

    • Very good: 58% or more
    • Good: 57%
    • Average: 54 to 56%
    • Bad: 50 to 53%
    • Very bad: 49% or less

    Chart

    Link: /mediadb/image/4aa247d64cb94e37b140e7c6d19a7f6c/

    External sources

  1. Gallup: Presidential Approval Ratings
  2. Gallup: Presidential Job Approval Center
  3. 538: How popular FiveThirtyEight: How (un)popular  is Donald Trump? Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/?cid=rrpromo Link: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/