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Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?

Settlement proposals

Please check if any final result proposed here has really happened. Is there a reliable source for this information? Is the proposed cut-off date before the time when the final result became certain beyond reasonable doubt? Did the trader proposing the final result refrain from cheating with quick last trades? If these checks are positive, please vote "Yes" for settlement else "No".
§ Judgement rule
According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI). Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2016, 24:00 CET
  • Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
    Proposed result 1 accepted on 2020/01/11 03:23:52

    Proposed result:
    Settlement at market prices (Regulations § 13.1)
    Trading cut-off:
    2020/01/11 03:20:00
    The experiment described was not carried out as originally intended. According to Prediki regulations §13, we are closing this at market values. ...more
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