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Will global warming reach +1.5°C by 2030, and why?

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  • R. Bitrary, You do it
    Modification proposal 4 accepted on 2018/11/27 09:52:51

    Answer scale change

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    Question
    What will the global climate anomaly be in 2030, and why?
    Will global warming reach +1.5°C by 2030, and why?
    Judgement rule
    The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly (°C change to pre-industrial revolution) of land and ocean in 2030, as reported by the NOAA's annual Global Climate Report for 2030.
    The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly in 2030, defined as the change to "pre-industrial levels" of the average of land and ocean temperatures, as reported by the NOAA's annual Global Climate Report or a similarly authoritative source.
    Question type
    Ordered answer scale
    Answers
    • 1. Up to 0.8°C Up to 0.5°C
    • 2. 0.8 - 1.0 °C 0.5 - 0.8 °C
    • 3. 1.0 - 1.1 °C 0.8 - 1.0 °C
    • 4. 1.1 - 1.2 °C 1.0 - 1.2 °C
    • 5. 1.2 - 1.3 °C 1.2 - 1.5 °C
    • 6. 1.3 - 1.5 °C 1.5 - 2.0 °C
    • 7. More than 1.5°C More than 2.0°C
    Time zone
    Europe/London
    Reference date:
    2031/01/31 24:00
    2030/12/31 24:00
    Result expected on
    2031/01/31 24:00
    2030/12/31 24:00
    Trading session (optional):
      until  
  • R. Bitrary, You do it
    Modification proposal 3 accepted on 2018/11/27 08:38:00

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    Question
    What will the global climate anomaly be in 2020, and why?
    What will the global climate anomaly be in 2030, and why?
    Judgement rule
    The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly (°C difference to the 20th century average) of land and ocean in 2020, as reported by the annual NOAA Global Climate Report for 2020.
    The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly (°C change to pre-industrial revolution) of land and ocean in 2030, as reported by the NOAA's annual Global Climate Report for 2030.
    Question type
    Ordered answer scale
    Answers
    • 1. Up to 0.6°C Up to 0.8°C
    • 2. 0.6 - 0.7 °C 0.8 - 1.0 °C
    • 3. 0.7 - 0.8 °C 1.0 - 1.1 °C
    • 4. 0.8 - 0.9 °C 1.1 - 1.2 °C
    • 5. 0.9 - 1.0 °C 1.2 - 1.3 °C
    • 6. 1.0 - 1.1 °C 1.3 - 1.5 °C
    • 7. More than 1.1°C More than 1.5°C
    Time zone
    Europe/London
    Reference date:
    2021/01/31 24:00
    2031/01/31 24:00
    Result expected on
    2021/01/31 24:00
    2031/01/31 24:00
    Trading session (optional):
      until  
  • R. Bitrary, You do it
    Modification proposal 2 accepted on 2018/11/26 04:06:18

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    Question
    What will be the global temperature anomaly in 2020?
    What will the global climate anomaly be in 2020, and why?
    Judgement rule
    The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly of land and ocean in 2020, as reported by the annual NOAA Global Climate Report for 2020.
    The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly (°C difference to the 20th century average) of land and ocean in 2020, as reported by the annual NOAA Global Climate Report for 2020.
    Question type
    Ordered answer scale
    Answers
    • 1. Up to 0.6°C
    • 2. 0.6 - 0.7 °C
    • 3. 0.7 - 0.8 °C
    • 4. 0.8 - 0.9 °C
    • 5. 0.9 - 1.0 °C
    • 6. 1.0 - 1.1 °C
    • 7. More than 1.1°C
    Time zone
    Europe/London
    Reference date:
    2021/01/31 24:00
    Result expected on
    2021/01/31 24:00
    Trading session (optional):
      until  
  • R. Bitrary, You do it
    Modification proposal 1 accepted on 2018/11/23 03:18:35

    Created a shorter, more tangible question

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    Question
    Will the 1.5°C global target be reached?
    What will be the global temperature anomaly in 2020?
    Judgement rule
    Scientists are of the opinion that there has been an increase of 1°C. in global mean temperatures after the industrial revolution, leading to negative environmental impacts such as sea-level rise, heat waves and droughts -to mention a few.

    Climate change is a great threat to our civilisation - it certainly needs to be mitigated for present and future generations to live safely, happily and peacefully.

    To mitigate global climate change, there is an international consensus known as the Paris Agreement to limit global temperature rise (in this century) well below 2 °C. above pre-industrial times and aim for 1.5 °C. The agreement aims to strengthen the global response to climate change to make the world a better, safe and conducive place for all.

    The notion here is whether or not keeping global mean temperatures below 2°C can be achieved. If so, by when? According to Heleen de Coninck, climate scientist and contributor to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) latest report on climate change, "To stay below this limit, drastic measures must be taken immediately to limit all types of greenhouse gas emissions," To achieve the aforementioned temperature target, global carbon emissions has to reach net zero by around 2050.

    It is, therefore, possible to achieve the 1.5 °C if current climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts are intensified and new ones introduced continually. These can be through building more energy efficient buildings, renewable energy utilisation, growing trees and so on. However, should we as a global society continue with our current emission rates, there is a high possibility of us exceeding the 1.5 °C. limit between 2030 and 2050, even if we manage to stay within limits between now and 2030.









    The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly of land and ocean in 2020, as reported by the annual NOAA Global Climate Report for 2020.
    Question type
    Unordered alternatives
    Ordered answer scale
    Answers
    • 1. Yes, if we if we change our ways Up to 0.6°C New colour
    • 2. No, if we continue with current practices 0.6 - 0.7 °C New colour
    • 3. Deepnds on future trends 0.7 - 0.8 °C New colour
    • 4. 0.8 - 0.9 °C
    • 5. 0.9 - 1.0 °C
    • 6. 1.0 - 1.1 °C
    • 7. More than 1.1°C
    Time zone
    Europe/London
    Reference date:
    2028/11/30 24:00
    2021/01/31 24:00
    Result expected on
    2028/11/30 24:00
    2021/01/31 24:00
    Trading session (optional):
      until