Will global warming reach +1.5°C by 2030, and why?

Follow |   94 Recruiting
  1. Welcome. First, let us explain the four tasks in each question. This button will later bring you to the wiki with some background information to the question. Now please click the blue arrow > to continue.
  2. This button will show you the exact judgement rule which specifies how the question will be settled and the winner determined. You must accept the rule to unlock trading.
  3. Clicking here will open the trading section where you can then buy and sell predictions using your virtual credits.
  4. The last button will bring you to the market talk section. Try to convince other traders of your predictions with a good argument.
  5. The better your predictions are compared to other traders, the higher will be your share of the incentive.
  6. When all four tasks are done please proceed to the next question by clicking here.
  1. Welcome! First, please click the “book” icon to jump to a question's information wiki.
  1. Great! Now please click here to check the exact judgement rule.
  1. Now, let’s do your first trade together. Please click here.
  1. Last task: Now convince other traders of your answer to push its price.
  1. When finished, click here to proceed to the next question.
  2. Click here to return to the previous question.
  3. Click here to jump to any question directly.
  4. Continue to trade, talk, or rate before proceeding to the next question.
  • No questions for this search term

**Antworten handeln

**Investieren Sie Ihre Credits gemäß Ihrer Einschätzung

  • {{ item.msg }}
**Antworten **Kurs (%) **Dafür **Dagegen **Kurslimit **Mögl. Gewinn **Investiert **Aktion
{{ answer.share_price | number:2 }} {{ answer.portfolio.num_shares | number:2 }} {{ answer.invested | number:2 }}
**Handelslimit für diese Frage {{ portfolio.free_credits_question | number:2 }} **Credits
  • **Investiert {{ portfolio.invested | number:2 }}
  • **Bewertung {{ portfolio.asset_valuation | number:2 }}
  • **Gewinn/Verlust (%) {{ portfolio.total_profit_loss | number:2 | removeMinus | addPlus | addPlusMinus }} ({{ portfolio.total_profit_loss_relative | number:2 | removeMinus | addPlus | addPlusMinus }})
  1. You can invest up to 10,000 of your 100,000 credits in each question.
  2. Now please select the likeliest answer and invest.
    • 1,000 credits say "Maybe"
    • 5,000 is "Probably"
    • 10,000 signal "I am certain".
    Try it now!
  1. The more you buy, the higher the price. The next trader must pay even more. Go on.
  2. Click the green check-mark to execute the trade.
  1. Deal? The system confirms if your transaction has been executed.
  2. Here you can see how many Credits you have invested so far.
  3. You can cash out your Credits at any time with the orange "C"-Button.
  1. This is how the question will be judged in the end, when the final outcome becomes known.
  2. This is the precise date or end of the period to which the question refers.
  3. After reading the judgement rule, please click here.
Close

§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly in 2030, defined as the change to "pre-industrial levels" of the average of land and ocean temperatures, as reported by the NOAA's annual Global Climate Report or a similarly authoritative source.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2030, 24:00 GMT

**Alle Antworten

**Widget einbetten **Wahrscheinlichkeit
{{ answer.share_price|number:2 }} %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

Edit

Your challenge

Predict the temperature anomly (in °C) of the annual Global Climate Report for 2030. 

The annual Global Climate Report 2017 [1] shows that the global temperature anomaly was +0.84°C above the "pre-industrial average", 0.10 °C less than 2016's +0.94°C, the highest anomaly recorded so far, later corrected to +0.99°C. The temperature anomaly reached a similar level in 2020 with a mean of +0.98°C.


The global climate

The IPCC 5th Assessment Report linked warming of the atmosphere and oceans to the emission of greenhouse gasses, stating that "it is extremely likely that human influence is the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950". The report also forecasts some impacts of further emissions, such as an increase in acidification of the ocean. (Wikipedia: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report)

The international Paris Agreement signatory countries declared an intent to mitigate the effects of global warming to well below +2 °C (by lowering emissions). The US since has declared an intent to withdraw from the agreement. (Wikipedia: Paris Agreement)

Recently, a Special IPCC Report predicts that a temperature rise of more than 1.5°C could already cause challenges for ecosystems and human wellbeing. (Wikipedia: Special Report on Global Warming)

NOTES:

  1. These possible impacts could be part of a series of further prediction questions on Prediki, if there is audience interest.
  2. The degree of desirability or undesirability of these predicted impacts may differ for different persons depending on individual circumstances.

The past years

The charts below show the global mean temperature anomaly for land and ocean temperatures since the start of the industrial revolution (left) and the last few years (right).

1880 - 2017 2010 - 2020
Global land-ocean temperature index - Copyright: By NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24363898 Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (Land and Ocean) - Copyright: NOAA Global Time Series - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/2010-2020

Sources: Berkeley Earth - Land and Ocean Summary (left), NOAA's Global Time Series [2] (right). 


Sources

  1. NOAA's Global Climate Report for 2017.
  2. NOAA's Global Time Series - Global Land and Ocean anomaly, Year-to-Date, 2010 - 2020, Jan. to Dec.
  1. Offering the reason for your trade may convince other traders to follow your opinion.
  2. Click '+' if you agree, or '–' to disagree. You get a credit for every rating you make.
  3. For each '+' the author will get +100 credits added to his trading account .
  4. If you rate a comment with "-", please reply and state your objection.
  5. Now please rate, reply, or write your own comment. Best of luck!

Reasons and arguments Analyze

Question owner:
Anonymous
  • 2,966 Views
  • 60 Messages
  • 311 Transactions
This question has 94 followers
Countdown to final result Dec. 31, 2030, 19:00:00 2030/12/31 24:00 GMT