Will global warming reach +1.5°C by 2030, and why?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

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The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly in 2030, defined as the change to "pre-industrial levels" of the average of land and ocean temperatures, as reported by the NOAA's annual Global Climate Report or a similarly authoritative source.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2030, 24:00 GMT

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Your challenge

Predict the temperature anomly (in °C) of the annual Global Climate Report for 2030. 

The annual Global Climate Report 2017 [1] shows that the global temperature anomaly was +0.84°C above the "pre-industrial average", 0.10 °C less than 2016's +0.94°C, the highest anomaly recorded so far, later corrected to +0.99°C. The temperature anomaly reached a similar level in 2020 with a mean of +0.98°C.

The global climate

The IPCC 5th Assessment Report linked warming of the atmosphere and oceans to the emission of greenhouse gasses, stating that "it is extremely likely that human influence is the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950". The report also forecasts some impacts of further emissions, such as an increase in acidification of the ocean. (Wikipedia: IPCC Fifth Assessment Report)

The international Paris Agreement signatory countries declared an intent to mitigate the effects of global warming to well below +2 °C (by lowering emissions). The US since has declared an intent to withdraw from the agreement. (Wikipedia: Paris Agreement)

Recently, a Special IPCC Report predicts that a temperature rise of more than 1.5°C could already cause challenges for ecosystems and human wellbeing. (Wikipedia: Special Report on Global Warming)

NOTES:

  1. These possible impacts could be part of a series of further prediction questions on Prediki, if there is audience interest.
  2. The degree of desirability or undesirability of these predicted impacts may differ for different persons depending on individual circumstances.

The past years

The charts below show the global mean temperature anomaly for land and ocean temperatures since the start of the industrial revolution (left) and the last few years (right).

1880 - 2017 2010 - 2020
Global land-ocean temperature index - Copyright: By NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24363898 Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (Land and Ocean) - Copyright: NOAA Global Time Series - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/2010-2020

Sources: Berkeley Earth - Land and Ocean Summary (left), NOAA's Global Time Series [2] (right). 

Sources

  1. NOAA's Global Climate Report for 2017.
  2. NOAA's Global Time Series - Global Land and Ocean anomaly, Year-to-Date, 2010 - 2020, Jan. to Dec.

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1. xu chen 9,231.57
2. Matt Redfern 6,634.84
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Countdown to final result Dec. 31, 2030, 19:00:00 2030/12/31 24:00 GMT