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Will global warming reach +1.5°C by 2030, and why?

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<body><h2>Your challenge</h2>
<p>Predict the temperature anomly (in °C) of the annual Global Climate Report for 2030. </p>
<p>The annual <strong>Global Climate Report 2017</strong> [1] shows that the global temperature anomaly was +0.84°C above the "pre-industrial average", 0.10 °C less than 2016's +0.94°C, the highest anomaly recorded so far, later corrected to +0.99°C. The temperature anomaly reached a similar level in 2020 with a mean of +0.98°C.</p>
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<h2>The global climate</h2>
<p>The <strong>IPCC</strong> 5th Assessment Report linked <strong>warming</strong> of the atmosphere and oceans to the <strong>emission</strong> of greenhouse gasses, stating that "it is <em>extremely likely</em> that human influence is the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950". The report also forecasts some <strong>impacts</strong> of further emissions, such as an increase in <strong>acidification</strong> of the ocean. (Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPCC_Fifth_Assessment_Report" target="_blank">IPCC Fifth Assessment Report</a>)</p>
<p>The international <strong>Paris Agreement</strong> signatory countries declared an intent to mitigate the effects of global warming to <strong>well below +2 °C </strong>(by lowering emissions). The US since has declared an intent to withdraw from the agreement. (Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paris_Agreement" target="_blank">Paris Agreement</a>)</p>
<p>Recently, a <strong>Special IPCC Report</strong> predicts that a temperature rise of <strong>more than 1.5°C </strong>could already cause <strong>challenges</strong> for ecosystems and human wellbeing. (Wikipedia: <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Special_Report_on_Global_Warming_of_1.5_%C2%B0C" target="_blank">Special Report on Global Warming</a>)</p>
<p><em>NOTES: </em></p>
<ol>
<li><em>These possible impacts could be part of a series of further prediction questions on Prediki, if there is audience interest. </em></li>
<li><em>The degree of desirability or undesirability of these predicted impacts may differ for different persons depending on individual circumstances.</em></li>
</ol>
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<h2>The past years</h2>
<p>The charts below show the global mean temperature anomaly for land and ocean temperatures since the start of the industrial revolution (left) and the last few years (right).</p>
<table border="0" cellpadding="1" cellspacing="1">
<thead>
<tr>
<th scope="col"><strong>1880 - 2017</strong></th>
<th scope="col"><strong>2010 - 2020</strong></th>
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</thead>
<tbody>
<tr>
<td><a class="wiki-img" href="/mediadb/image/e5bc53d4d5354b94ac022bfdc8315fc0/"><img alt="Global land-ocean temperature index - Copyright: By NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies - http://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/graphs/, Public Domain, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=24363898" src="/media/displays/e5bc53d4d5354b94ac022bfdc8315fc0/wiki_medium.png"/></a></td>
<td><a class="wiki-img" href="/mediadb/image/fd1ac82c85ee4193babccd8bf644cad0/"><img alt="Global Mean Temperature Anomaly (Land and Ocean) - Copyright: NOAA Global Time Series - https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/2010-2020" src="/media/displays/fd1ac82c85ee4193babccd8bf644cad0/wiki_medium.png"/></a></td>
</tr>
</tbody>
</table>
<p><em>Sources: Berkeley Earth - Land and Ocean Summary (left), NOAA's Global Time Series [2] (right).</em> </p>
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<h2>Sources</h2>
<ol>
<li>NOAA's <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/global/201713" target="_blank">Global Climate Report</a> for 2017.</li>
<li>NOAA's <a href="https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/cag/global/time-series/globe/land_ocean/ytd/12/2010-2020" target="_blank">Global Time Series</a> - Global Land and Ocean anomaly, Year-to-Date, 2010 - 2020, Jan. to Dec.</li>
</ol>
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