Prediki Prediction Markets GmbH

How many members will New Demarchy have in the end of 2016?

Edit wiki Back to question

<body><h2>Outcome</h2>
<p>The New Demarchy Meetup had 28 or 29 memebers at the end of 2016. The forecast here (I estimate the median line to read about 60) was overly optimistic. Good things take while.</p>
<hr/>
<h2 id="h_your-prediction-task">Your prediction task</h2>
<p>Is the likely improvement of political process with New Demarchy sufficiently high to motivate the foundation of a dedicated organisation with a relevant number of citizens formally becoming members?</p>
<h2 id="h_background">Background</h2>
<p>There are several pre-existing political concepts proposed under the name demarchy (<em>gr. "citicens rule"</em>). Notable proponents include Austrian economist <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Friedrich_Hayek">Friedrich A. Hayek</a> and Australian philosopher <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Burnheim">John Burnheim</a>. Their proposed systems have not been realised, mostly due to issues with practicalities.</p>
<h2 id="h_new-demarchy">New Demarchy</h2>
<p><a href="https://www.prediki.com/meta/The-New-Demarchy-Manifesto/">New Demarchy</a> is an independently developed system which improves on its predecessors on several fronts. It can work within the existing democratic system, hence does not need a change in constitution. Further, it envisages much broader participation, both in decision making as well as in the best possible preparation of decisions, faster appointment processes, better <a href="https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Use_of_Knowledge_in_Society">use of distributed knowledge</a>, more expertise for complex issues, and continuous evidence-based decision tracking.</p>
<h2 id="h_all-questions-regarding-the-foundation">All questions regarding the foundation decision:</h2>
<ul>
<li><a href="https://www.prediki.com/questions/When-will-New-Demarchy-complete-its-first-successful-pilot-project/">Pilot project</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.prediki.com/questions/Will-New-Demarchy-produce-better-policy-impact-forecasts-than-professional-politicians-already-in-2016/">Better forecasts</a></li>
<li><a href="https://www.prediki.com/questions/How-many-members-will-New-Demarchy-have-in-the-end-of-2016/">Number of members</a></li>
</ul>
</body>

or cancel

Edit wiki Back to question

Insert images