How many members will New Demarchy have in the end of 2016?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

This question will be judged by the total number of members of any and all organisations world-wide on 31 December 2016 which are founded to further New Demarchy in the spirit of "The New Demarchy Manifesto" as proposed on the following web page: https://www.prediki.com/meta/The-New-Demarchy-Manifesto/
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2016, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
 0
7.52 %
 1 - 10
8.54 %
 11 - 20
8.62 %
 21 - 50
14.94 %
 51 - 100
17.23 %
 101 - 200
8.62 %
 201 - 500
8.54 %
 501 - 1000
8.54 %
 1000+ members
17.42 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

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Outcome

The New Demarchy Meetup had 28 or 29 memebers at the end of 2016. The forecast here (I estimate the median line to read about 60) was overly optimistic. Good things take while.


Your prediction task

Is the likely improvement of political process with New Demarchy sufficiently high to motivate the foundation of a dedicated organisation with a relevant number of citizens formally becoming members?

Background

There are several pre-existing political concepts proposed under the name demarchy (gr. "citicens rule"). Notable proponents include Austrian economist Friedrich A. Hayek and Australian philosopher John Burnheim. Their proposed systems have not been realised, mostly due to issues with practicalities.

New Demarchy

New Demarchy is an independently developed system which improves on its predecessors on several fronts. It can work within the existing democratic system, hence does not need a change in constitution. Further, it envisages much broader participation, both in decision making as well as in the best possible preparation of decisions, faster appointment processes, better use of distributed knowledge, more expertise for complex issues, and continuous evidence-based decision tracking.

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Reasons and arguments Analyze

Question owner:
Hubertus Hofkirchner
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