• No questions for this search term

Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?

Vote on modification proposals

  • Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
    Modification proposal 1 accepted on 2015/12/04 07:50:53

    Fixed typos.

    ...more
    Profile picture
    
        
    or cancel

    Question
    Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?
    Judgement rule
    According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI).

    Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.

    Question type
    Ordered answer scale
    Answers
    • 1. Worse (PI less than -5 %)
    • 2. Equal (PI +/- 5 %)
    • 3. Slightly better (PI +5 to +10 %)
    • 4. Significantlty better (PI +10 to +20 %) Better (PI +10 to +20 %)
    • 5. Materially better (PI +20 to +30 %) Significantly better (PI +20 to +30 %)
    • 6. A lot better (PI +30 to +50 %)
    • 7. Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50%) Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50 %)
    Time zone
    Europe/Vienna
    Reference date:
    2016/12/31 24:00
    Result expected on
    2016/12/31 24:00
    Trading session (optional):
      until  
  • Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
    New question proposed accepted on 2015/12/04 07:48:23
    Profile picture
    
        
    or cancel

    Question
    Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?
    Judgement rule
    According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI).

    Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.

    Question type
    Ordered answer scale
    Answers
    • 1. Worse (PI less than -5 %)
    • 2. Equal (PI +/- 5 %)
    • 3. Slightly better (PI +5 to +10 %)
    • 4. Significantlty better (PI +10 to +20 %)
    • 5. Materially better (PI +20 to +30 %)
    • 6. A lot better (PI +30 to +50 %)
    • 7. Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50%)
    Time zone
    Europe/Vienna
    Reference date:
    2016/12/31 24:00
    Result expected on
    2016/12/31 24:00
    Trading session (optional):
      until