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Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?

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  • Photo Hubertus Hofkirchner
    Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
    Modification proposal 1 accepted on 2015/12/04 07:50:53

    Fixed typos.

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    Question
    
          
    
            
              Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?
            
          
    
          

          
          
          
    Judgement rule
    
          
    
            
              According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI).

    Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.

    
            
          
    
          
      
          
          
          
    
            
    Question type
    
            
          
    
          
    
            
              Ordered answer scale
            
          
    
          
        
    
        

    
  
    Answers
    
  
    
    
      
      
        
          
    • 
            1. (14.29%) Worse (PI less than -5 %)
          
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            2. (14.29%) Equal (PI +/- 5 %)
          
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            3. (14.29%) Slightly better (PI +5 to +10 %)
          
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                      4.
                    
                    
                      Significantlty better (PI +10 to +20 %)
                      (14.29%) Better (PI +10 to +20 %)
                    
                    
                  
      
                
              
            
          
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                      5.
                    
                    
                      Materially better (PI +20 to +30 %)
                      (14.29%) Significantly better (PI +20 to +30 %)
                    
                    
                  
      
                
              
            
          
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            6. (14.29%) A lot better (PI +30 to +50 %)
          
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                      7.
                    
                    
                      Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50%)
                      (14.29%) Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50 %)
                    
                    
                  
      
                
              
            
          
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    Time zone
    
        
    
          
            Europe/Vienna
          
        
    
        
    
        
        
    Reference date:
    
        
    
          
            2016/12/31 24:00
          
        
    
        

        
        
    Result expected on
    
        
    
          
            2016/12/31 24:00
          
        
    
        

        
        
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      Photo Hubertus Hofkirchner
    
  


  
    

  
    
      
    

        
          Hubertus Hofkirchner, Chief Futurist
        
      
    
      
    
        
    
          
            
              New question proposed
            
          

          
            
              accepted on 2015/12/04 07:48:23
            
          
        
    
      
    

      

      
      
    

      


      
  
    
    

  


    

      




    
  
  
    
    
      
        
    
          
            

  
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    Question
    
          
    
            
              Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?
            
          
    
          

          
          
          
    Judgement rule
    
          
    
            
              According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI).

    Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.

    
            
          
    
          
      
          
          
          
    
            
    Question type
    
            
          
    
          
    
            
              Ordered answer scale
            
          
    
          
        
    
        

    
  
    Answers
    
  
    
    
      
      
        
          
    • 
            1. (14.29%) Worse (PI less than -5 %)
          
      • 
        
      
        
          
    • 
            2. (14.29%) Equal (PI +/- 5 %)
          
      • 
        
      
        
          
    • 
            3. (14.29%) Slightly better (PI +5 to +10 %)
          
      • 
        
      
        
          
    • 
            4. (14.29%) Significantlty better (PI +10 to +20 %)
          
      • 
        
      
        
          
    • 
            5. (14.29%) Materially better (PI +20 to +30 %)
          
      • 
        
      
        
          
    • 
            6. (14.29%) A lot better (PI +30 to +50 %)
          
      • 
        
      
        
          
    • 
            7. (14.29%) Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50%)
          
      • 
        
      
    
    
  
    

    

      
        
        
    Time zone
    
        
    
          
            Europe/Vienna
          
        
    
        
    
        
        
    Reference date:
    
        
    
          
            2016/12/31 24:00
          
        
    
        

        
        
    Result expected on
    
        
    
          
            2016/12/31 24:00
          
        
    
        

        
        
    Trading session (optional):
    
        
    
          
            
          
            until  
          
            
          
        
    
        
      
    
          


    
  
  
  
  


  

  

    

        
    
       

  
    

    

    
    • 
  






    
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