Your challenge

The annual Global Climate Report [1] for 2017 shows that the global temperature anomaly was +0.84°C above the pre-industrial average, following the record year of 2016's +0.94°C.

Predict the temperature anomly (in °C) of the annual Global Climate Report for 2030. 

The global climate

The IPCC 5th Assessment Report [2] linked warming of the atmosphere and oceans to the emission of greenhouse gasses, stating that "It is extremely likely that human influence is the dominant cause of observed warming since 1950". The report also forecasts some impacts of further emissions, such as an increase in acidification of the ocean.

To mitigate the effects of global warming, there is an international consensus known as the Paris Agreement [3] to limit global temperature rise (by lowering emissions) to well below +2 °C. Recently, a special report [4]  postulated that a temperature rise of more than 1.5°C could already cause challenges for ecosystems and human wellbeing.

The past years

The charts below show the global mean temperature anomaly for land and ocean temperatures since the start of the industrial revolution (left) and the last few years (right).

1880 - 2017	2012 - 2017

Sources: Berkeley Earth - Land and Ocean Summary (left), NOAA's annual Global Climate Report (right). 

Sources

1. NOAA's Global Climate Report for 2017.
2. Wikipedia article on the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report.
3. Wikipedia article on the Paris Agreement.
4. Wikipedia article on the Special Report on Global Warming.