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When will energy (gas and electricity) prices cap in the UK stabilise again, at 2021 price?

  • The question will be judged by the year in which the energy price cap in the UK set by Ofgem, the regulator, will fall back to the 2021 level of £1,280 per year or below.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2026, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Wird die wirtschaftliche Blockbildung USA/China zwischen 2022 und 2025 zunehmen?

  • Die Frage wird nach der Zu- oder Abnahme des direkten zwischenstaatlichen Handels zwischen den USA und China abgerechnet, d.h. Summe der Importe plus Exporte denominiert in USD, korrigiert um den BIP-Deflator.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2026, 00:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Which healthy, functioning human body part will be the first to be voluntarily replaced by a prosth...

  • This question will be settled by the first prosthetic that will replace a healthy, fully functioning body part of a human. The person will have to volunteer to remove the healthy limb or organ in order to be fitted with an artificially created replacement.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2025, 19:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Welche Weltregion wird zwischen 2022 und 2025 wirtschaftlich am stärksten wachsen und warum?

  • Es gilt das Land mit der größten prozentuellen Zunahme seines realisierten jährlichen BIP zwischen Ende 2021 und 2025. Für nicht genannte Länder gilt dessen geopolitische Region. Zeitreihe: BIP zu aktuellen Preisen, in US Dollar.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2025, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Welchen Höchststand erreicht der EZB-Leitzinssatz bis 2025?

  • Als EZB-Leitzins i.S. dieser Prognosefrage gilt der Zinssatz für die Einlagefazilität der EZB ab Handelsbeginn bis 31. Dezember 2025.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2025, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Wird bis 2025 in einem militärischen Konflikt eine Atomwaffe eingesetzt werden?

  • "Nein": Bis Ende 2025 MEZ wurde keine Atomwaffe eingesetzt. | "Ja, durch eine Nation": Eine Nation, die Kriegspartei ist, setzt eine oder mehrere Atomwaffen im Konflikt ein. | "Ja, durch zwei oder mehr Nationen": Der Atomkrieg eskaliert, die Frage wird sofort abgerechnet. | Atomwaffentests gelten nicht als militärischer Waffeneinsatz im Sinne dieser Prognosefrage.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2025, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Welches ist die disruptivste emergente Technologie 2022, und warum?

  • Es gilt die Technologie des Unternehmens mit der höchsten realisierten Bewertung zwischen 2022 und 2025, zugeordnet in der Systematik des PitchBook Emergent Technology Report 2022. Als realisierte Bewertung gelten Börsengänge oder Unternehmenskäufe.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2025, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will Joe Biden be a good President, and why?

  • The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Joe Biden as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2025. If FiveThirtyEight has no approval rating statistic, the question will be judged by the ranking on Gallup's presidential job approval center. Should Joe Biden's presidency end early, it shall be the last rating prior to this. If Joe Biden's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (12-14) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (10-11) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-9 will be judged as "Average".
    • Due: Jan. 21, 2025, 00:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Which centralised crypto exchange will be #1 in spot trading by the end of 2024?

  • The question shall be judged by the reported trading volume in USD fiat terms of the named centralised crypto exchanges for the last quarter of 2024, as reported by a trusted source, such as CoinGecko.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2025, 00:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will Bitcoin reach a new all time high in 2024?

  • The question will be judged by the "All Time High" of USD/Bitcoin price as per Coinbase at year end 2024. https://www.coinbase.com/price/bitcoin
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2025, 00:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    How much investment will flow into Bitcoin ETFs in their first 90 days?

  • The question shall be judged by the reported inflow of funds into the first Bitcoin ETF launched, plus any other such ETF launched within that period. If no such fund is launched by the end of Q3 2024, the question shall be settled at current market price as per Prediki Regulations.
    • Due: Oct. 1, 2024, 00:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will France win the Euro 2024?

  • EURO 2024 Winner, as according to: https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/
    • Due: July 14, 2024, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will England win the EURO 2024?

  • EURO 2024 Winner, as according to: https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/
    • Due: July 14, 2024, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Who will win the EURO 2024?

  • EURO 2024 Winner, as according to: https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/
    • Due: July 14, 2024, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    How many points will Everton have deducted before the end of the 2023/24 season?

  • In March 2023 Everton were charged by the Premier League for breaching profit and sustainability rules (PSR) over the period 2019-20, 2020-21, and 2021-22. The matter was referred to an independent commission and on November 17th 2023 they issued a 10 point deduction with immediate effect. Everton lodged an appeal to this punishment which is due to be resolved in February 2024. On January 15th 2024 Everton received a separate charge from the Premier League, covering the period 2019-20, 2020-21, 2021-22 and also 2022-23. The second independent commission will wait until the results of the first appeal are known before meeting, and the Premier League have stated that they would like both charges to be resolved before the end of the season. How many points, in total, will Everton have had deducted when their final PL match of the season kicks off at 4pm on Sunday May 19th 2024?
    • Due: May 19, 2024, 11:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will Russia and Ukraine sign or announce an agreement to end the current conflict in Ukraine by the...

  • Russia's war in Ukraine continues, though Russia floated the idea of talks on the "post-conflict settlement" of the war in October 2023 (https://www.economist.com/the-world-ahead/2023/11/13/vladimir-putin-cannot-keep-funding-his-war-for-ever). A signed or announced agreement must be acknowledged by both Russia and Ukraine to count. The Ukrainian government as recognized by the European Union must be party to the agreement to count. An armistice or a ceasefire of indefinite duration would count and must include the whole of Ukraine. Time-limited agreements (e.g., 72-hour ceasefire) would not count. The date an agreement would take effect is immaterial.
    • Due: May 2, 2024, 00:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 0.00

    When will be the end of the Syria war?

  • An international peace treaty singed from all stakeholder that signifies the end of the war. The start of each year (e.g. 2020) is from 1rst January to 31 December.
    • Due: May 1, 2024, 17:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Who will be announced as the new Wake economics department chairman by the end of the semester?

  • The Wake economics department is in the process of selecting a new chairman. This position must be held by a tenured research professor. All current tenured professors are listed. The "Other" option will pay off if an unlisted person is announced (that includes for example the current chair) or there is no announcement by the end of the semester about this position. Note added 18 Feb: I may need to backdate the expiry time for this market to the time of the announcement. Trades made after the announcement will be refunded.
    • Due: May 1, 2024, 17:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 0.00

    North Carolina will report at least one month with $100million in legal sports betting (handle) by ...

  • Legal mobile sports betting is scheduled to start in NC at noon on 11 march 2024. We will use Legal Sports Reports as our official source: https://www.legalsportsreport.com/sports-betting/revenue/ If there is a report from official NC sources then I will use that to expire. If there is a report which I do not see until far after publication, I reserve the right to expire the market at the time the report was issued (bets made after that time will be refunded). The market will expire as "No" if: -there are no months with the handle listed -no reports issued by the end of the semester -sports betting is delayed beyond the start of the semester
    • Due: May 1, 2024, 17:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 0.00

    Will a second trailer for "A Quiet Place: Day One" be released before the end of the semester?

  • So far there is one trailer released. We will include a new teaser or trailer so long as it differs in a substantiative way from the initial trailer. We will use the HSX site below as the official source but will use other reliable sources if available. if the trailer comes out and the market is not resolved in a timely fashion, trades after the release time will be refunded. The movie will be released either 26 or 28 June 2024. https://www.hsx.com/security/view/AQPL3 https://www.boxofficemojo.com/title/tt13433802/?ref_=bo_se_r_1
    • Due: May 1, 2024, 17:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 0.00
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