Big vs. Small: What will be the combined market share of the top 5 market research firms in 2020?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

This prediction question shall be judged by the sum of the global market share of the 5 largest market research companies as reported by the GMR 2020. For the avoidance of doubt: the set of "largest" companies may change over the prediction horizon.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2019, 24:00 CET

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{{ answer.share_price|number:2 }} %

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Initial Background (GMR 2015)

Big vs Small Cropped - Copyright: Unknown

In 2015, the Top 5 largest firms in the market research industry commanded 39% of the total market. They recovered +2% share from 2014 after losing -4% in 2013.

Their ranking within the group did not change but firms with more syndicated offerings held up better than those with more ad-hoc business. [1]

Notably, the bigger Top 25 group contracted by -0.9% in 2015. The 20 mid-size companies in that group seem sandwiched between the big players and the more flexible or innovative small firms.

 

Update (GMR 2018)

In 2016 the Top 5 firms lost -2% share as they dropped to 37% of the total market of which they recovered +1% in the 2017. They now stand at 38% with 2 years to go until 2020.


Industry Concentration

The following chart and table show the market shares of the five largest market research companies over the past five years.

Market Share of the Top Five Market Research Companies UPDATE 2 - Copyright: ESOMAR

Company 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020
Nielsen 14% 14% 14% 14% 14%  
Kantar 10% 8% 7% 8% 8%  
IMS Health 6% 6% 7% 7% 8%  
Ipsos 6% 5% 6% 4% 4%  
GfK 5% 4% 5% 4% 4%  
Total 41% 37% 39% 37% 38% ???

Sources

  1. ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2016 (GMR)
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Publication is overdue 2020/09/30 24:00 CEST