Crowdsourcing: What percentage level of interest will Prediction Markets reach by 2020 compared to Market Research, and why?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

Modify Final result
This prediction question shall be judged by the ratio of Google search traffic for "Prediction Markets" divided by that for "Market Research". Search traffic shall be calculated for the last full calendar month before the ESOMAR Congress 2020.
Reference date: Aug. 31, 2020, 24:00 CEST

Answer options

Widget Price
● 0 - 1%
6.27 %
● 1 - 2%
6.27 %
● 2 - 5%
20.80 %
● 5 - 10%
31.06 %
● 10 - 20%
13.58 %
● 20 - 30%
8.44 %
● 30 - 50%
7.62 %
● More than 50%
5.92 %

Price trend

Transactions
  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

Wiki article

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Background

Crowdsourcing - Copyright: Boerse-daily

Origins

In the early 2000, prediction markets rose to public fame for the first time, mostly for their highly accurate forecasts of election outcomes. However, early platforms were complex and cumbersome for other market research project types. The initial hype deflated over the next decade.

Enter the next generation

A new generation of system then became available, with vastly improved technology and backed by a rigorous new methodology. These systems offer scaled and discrete question types instead of just a binary Yes/No. They apply action standards and hard benchmarks instead of the original naive 'crystal ball' approach. The best can provide volumetric forecasts instead of just probabilistic predictions. Social conversations and text analysis back all quant foresights with solid qual insights.

Empirical data for Prediction Market vs Market Research Progress

2016 New - Copyright: Prediki / Google Trend Data

2018 New - Copyright: Prediki / Google Trend Data

Reliable data on adoption of prediction markets is hard to come by. Only the GRIT report shows at least "claimed" adoption. GRIT reports higher on client side than offers from the agency side, this reflects the significant do-it-yourself portion with inhouse markets.

Google search frequency of Prediction Markets vs. Market Research rose from 3% in 2010 to 6% in 2016. The spikes in search traffic up to 12% in 2016 are mostly due to popular interest in reiiable predicitons for the presidential elections in the USA. Accordingly, searches fell back to lows of 5% after the Trump victory, notably still above the prior levels.

Since then, we saw fundamental growth to a 8% to 9% level in 2018 which indicates rising interest in prediciton market method and technology.

Final Result

The popularity (by search traffic) of "Prediction Markets" has continued to increase since 2016, while "Market Research" is slowly decreasing. The ratio of searches closed on recent high levels at 17.5% as of August 2020. 

Market Research vs Prediction Markets 2020 - Copyright: Prediki / Google Trend Data

Sources

  1. Google Trends
  2. Greenbook GRIT Report 2016

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