Research methods: Will online qualitative grow or shrink vs. online quantitative by 2020, and why?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

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This prediction question shall be judged by the share of spend by research method as reported by the ESOMAR GMR 2020. The result shall be the percentage of online qualitative research within the total of online research methods (i.e. online quantitative and qualitative).
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2019, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
● Up to 5%
0.81 %
● 5 - 10%
2.42 %
● 10 - 15%
12.07 %
● 15 - 20%
18.87 %
● 20 - 25%
32.97 %
● 25 - 35%
9.22 %
● 35 - 50%
18.05 %
● More than 50%
5.53 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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Initial Background (GMR 2015)

Research Methods - Copyright: Venasolutions

Strong growth of online qualitative

The GMR 2015 reported a solid increase in spend on online qualitative. Defined narrowly as "online research communities" the segment nearly doubled +2% to 5% of total method spend within the stable overall qualitative research segment of 16%.

This growth growth came at the expense of traditional "group discussions & focus groups" which declined to 8% (-3%) of method spend. [1]

The rise of other research methods

The quantitative segment has shrunk to 70% of spend (-3%) which share was taken by a residual "other" research segment which has grown to 14% (+3%) consistent with the increasing advent and rise of new research methods.

Update (GMR 2018)

Overall all online research saw good growth of +5% from 28% in 2015 to 33% in 2017. Online qualitative remained steady at 5% in 2016 and grew to 6% in 2017. Hence, the share of online qualitative rose by +1.0% to 18.2%.

Online Qualitative Within Total Online Method Spend

Qual share of online 2 - Copyright: ESOMAR

  2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2020
Total Online 26% 26% 28% 29% 33%  
Online Quantitative 24% 23% 23% 24% 27%  
Online Qualitative 2% 3% 5% 5% 6%  
Share of online qual 7.7% 11.5% 17.9% 17.2% 18.2% ???

Sources

  1. ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2016 (GMR)

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