How liquid will Lightning Network be at the end of 2021?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

The question will be judged by the total bitcoin denominated liquidity in Lightning Network as of 31 December 2021 24:00 UTC.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2021, 24:00 UTC

Answer options

Widget Price
 500 BTC or less
4.77 %
 500 - 800
7.88 %
 800 - 1,000
3.68 %
 1,000 - 2,000
22.40 %
 2,000 - 5,000
52.35 %
 5,000 - 10,000
7.45 %
 More than 10,000 BTC
1.45 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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Lightning Network Logo - Copyright: Oinman via Wikimedia: https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:Bitcoin_lightning_logo.svgIn 2019, Christoph Bergmann predicted a capacity of 10,000 bitcoin by the end of 2020, which would have dramatically increases the transfer amounts. [1] But he was wrong, year-end Lightning Network capacity was only 1,056 bitcoin. Will Bergman be right at least by the end of 2021?

1ML shows Lightning Network statistics in real time.

Hubertus's comment:

The most fundamental news in 2020 saw the introduction of Lightning Pool [2], a marketplace where private users and businesses can lease liquidity for payment channels. The service has attracted 11 bitcoins since November. Question is: will this foster or reduce the need for liquidity in the network?


Sources:

  1. "15 Prognosen zum Kryptomarkt im Jahr 2020" - BitcoinBlog.de
  2. "Lightning Network’s New Liquidity Marketplace Attracts a Surprising Mix of Individuals" - Coindesk (19 Nov 2020).
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Question owner:
Hubertus Hofkirchner
Moderator:
Helene Meier
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