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Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

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  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

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Trump meets Obama - Copyright: Wikipedia: Jesusemen Oni / VOA Public Domain

Background

For objectivity, this question will be judged by Trump's acceptance rank amongst all prior presidents since 1945 after his 1st term, so you must focus on the next four years. As always, please read the judgement rule § carefully before doing your trade or posting your argument.

Indicator of Presidential Quality

The most accessible indicator of a presidential standing for the 12 U.S. presidents since 1953 is Gallup's bi-weekly approval/disapproval survey. [1] The table below shows the last approval rating for each president at the end of his first term (for Lyndon Johnson after 1400 days in office).

Table: Presidential Approval Score At the End of Their First Term (Sorted)

RankPresidentStart1st Term
Approval
Final
Approval
Full presidency
average
1Dwight Eisenhower1953795970
2Ronald Reagan1981625750
3Richard Nixon1969592456
4John Kennedy1961585870
5Bill Clinton1993586550
6Harry Truman1945573256
7George W. Bush2001532962
8Gerald Ford1974535347
9Barack Obama20095156e48
10George H.W. Bush1989494961
11Lyndon Johnson1963414374
12Jimmy Carter1977313446

Source: Gallup

The re-election campaign gives most incumbent presidents some uplift around the end of the first term. Gallup's time series chart is recommended reading to understand these dynamics. [2]

According to the data above, the following approval ratings are required:

  • Very good: 58% or more
  • Good: 57%
  • Average: 54 to 56%
  • Bad: 50 to 53%
  • Very bad: 49% or less

Chart

美國歷任總統支持率 - Copyright: Prediki / Gallup Data

External sources

  1. Gallup: Presidential Approval Ratings
  2. Gallup: Presidential Job Approval Center