Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?
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Study the background information carefully.
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Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.
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Background
For objectivity, this question will be judged by Trump's acceptance rank amongst all prior presidents since 1945 after his 1st term, so you must focus on the next four years. As always, please read the judgement rule § carefully before doing your trade or posting your argument.
Indicator of Presidential Quality
The most accessible indicator of a presidential standing for the 12 U.S. presidents since 1953 is Gallup's bi-weekly approval/disapproval survey. [1] The table below shows the last approval rating for each president at the end of his first term (for Lyndon Johnson after 1400 days in office).
Table: Presidential Approval Score At the End of Their First Term (Sorted)
| Rank | President | Start | 1st Term Approval | Final Approval | Full presidency average |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dwight Eisenhower | 1953 | 79 | 59 | 70 |
| 2 | Ronald Reagan | 1981 | 62 | 57 | 50 |
| 3 | Richard Nixon | 1969 | 59 | 24 | 56 |
| 4 | John Kennedy | 1961 | 58 | 58 | 70 |
| 5 | Bill Clinton | 1993 | 58 | 65 | 50 |
| 6 | Harry Truman | 1945 | 57 | 32 | 56 |
| 7 | George W. Bush | 2001 | 53 | 29 | 62 |
| 8 | Gerald Ford | 1974 | 53 | 53 | 47 |
| 9 | Barack Obama | 2009 | 51 | 59 | 48 |
| 10 | George H.W. Bush | 1989 | 49 | 49 | 61 |
| 11 | Lyndon Johnson | 1963 | 41 | 43 | 74 |
| 12 | Jimmy Carter | 1977 | 31 | 34 | 46 |
Source: Gallup
The re-election campaign gives most incumbent presidents some uplift around the end of the first term. Gallup's time series chart is recommended reading to understand these dynamics. [2]
According to the data above, the following approval ratings are required:
- Very good: 58% or more
- Good: 57%
- Average: 54 to 56%
- Bad: 50 to 53%
- Very bad: 49% or less
Chart
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External sources
- Gallup: Presidential Approval Ratings
- Gallup: Presidential Job Approval Center