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Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

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  1. Study the background information carefully.
  2. Read the background information carefully, before proceeding.

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Trump meets Obama - Copyright: Wikipedia: Jesusemen Oni / VOA Public Domain

Background

For objectivity, this question will be judged by Trump's approval rating after his 1st term, compared to that all prior presidents' since 1945. So, you must focus on Trumps full four year term. As always, please read the judgement rule § carefully before doing your trade or posting your argument.

Here is Trump's latest weekly approval rating according to Gallup and here is a composite approval rating as combined by FiveThirtyEight.

Indicator of Presidential Quality

The most accessible indicator of a presidential standing for the 12 U.S. presidents since 1953 is Gallup's bi-weekly approval/disapproval survey. [1] The table below shows the last approval rating for each president at the end of his first term (for Lyndon Johnson after 1400 days in office).

Table: Presidential Approval Score At the End of Their First Term (Sorted)

Rank President Start 1st Term
Approval
Final
Approval
Full presidency
average
1 Dwight Eisenhower 1953 79 59 70
2 Ronald Reagan 1981 62 57 50
3 Richard Nixon 1969 59 24 56
4 John Kennedy 1961 58 58 70
5 Bill Clinton 1993 58 65 50
6 Harry Truman 1945 57 32 56
7 George W. Bush 2001 53 29 62
8 Gerald Ford 1974 53 53 47
9 Barack Obama 2009 51 59 48
10 George H.W. Bush 1989 49 49 61
11 Lyndon Johnson 1963 41 43 74
12 Jimmy Carter 1977 31 34 46

Source: Gallup

The re-election campaign gives most incumbent presidents some uplift around the end of the first term. Gallup's time series chart is recommended reading to understand these dynamics. [2]

According to the data above, the following approval ratings are required:

  • Very good: 58% or more
  • Good: 57%
  • Average: 54 to 56%
  • Bad: 50 to 53%
  • Very bad: 49% or less

Chart

美國歷任總統支持率 - Copyright: Prediki / Gallup Data

External sources

  1. Gallup: Presidential Approval Ratings
  2. Gallup: Presidential Job Approval Center
  3. FiveThirtyEight: How (un)popular is Donald Trump?