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How liquid will Lightning Network be at the end of 2020?

  • The question will be judged by the total bitcoin denominated liquidity in Lightning Network as of 31 December 2020 24:00 UTC.
    • Last: Dec. 27, 2020, 10:45:57
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will privacy coin Monero be delisted in 2020?

  • The questions will be judged by the number of delistings of Monero from crypto exchanges. Monero was listed on 51 exchanges as of year end 2019, here in alphabetical order: Atomars, BigONE, Binance, Bisq, Bitalong, Bitci, Bitcoin.com, Bitexbook, Bitfinex, BitHash, Bithumb, Bittrex, BTCNEXT, BTCSquare, BTSE, BW.com, CHAOEX, CITEX, CoinBene, CoinEx, CREX24, DCoin, Digifinex, DragonEx, EXMO, Exrates, Finexbox, Gate.io, Graviex, HitBC, HPX, Huobi, IDCM, IncoreX, Indodax, Indoex, Kraken, KuCoin, MXC, OKEx, Poloniex, QBTC, SouthXchange, STEX, Tokenomy, Tokensnet, TradeOgre, VCCExchange, Wavesexchange, XT, ZBG. For the avoidance of doubt: General closings of an exchange or mergers shall not count as a delisting. Source: https://www.coingecko.com/de/munze/monero#markets
    • Last: Jan. 5, 2021, 20:04:39
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Wird GILT die erforderliche Zahl an Unterstützungserklärungen für die Nationalratswahl 2019 erhalte...

  • Es gilt die von GILT bekanntgegebene Zahl rechtzeitig eingelangter Unterstützungserklärungen ("UE"). "Rechtzeitig" bedeutet so eingelangt, dass GILT die erforderlichen UE bis spätestens 2. August 2019 17:00 Uhr bei der jeweiligen Landeswahlbehörde abgeben kann. "Nein, nirgendwo" heisst dass GILT in keinem Bundesland die erforderliche Zahl an UE erhält "Nein, nicht überall" bedeutet, dass für ein oder mehr Bundesländer nicht genügend UE einlangen. "Knapp, aber doch" bedeutet, dass GILT spätestens am 2. August genügend UE melden kann. "Ja, locker" bedeutet dass GILT schon am 29. Juli überall genügend UE melden kann.
    • Last: Aug. 1, 2019, 05:59:39
    • Settled
    Invaluable

    What percent of users will be smartphone addicts by 2020?

  • This question will be judged by the percent of worldwide smartphone users in 2020 who check their phone more than 50 times a day, as reported by a leading consumer trends report.
    • Last: April 24, 2021, 07:55:50
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    Will automation cause rising unemployment by 2020?

  • The question will be judged by the OECD average employment rate of workers with an education level below upper secondary, as shown by the OECD Data report for 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 30, 2022, 00:45:04
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    Will Ethereum 2.0 go live during 2020 and if yes, when?

  • The question will be judged by the time stamp of the first Ethereum block mined by Proof-of-Stake instead of Proof-of-Work.
    • Last: Dec. 15, 2020, 19:30:54
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the lowest price of bitcoin in 2020?

  • The question will be judged by the lowest weighted average price of bitcoin in USD in 2020, as published by BitcoinAverage.com. If the service folds or ceases to be resonably reliable, the leading comparable service's price data shall be used instead.
    • Last: Jan. 3, 2021, 15:11:46
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will a DAX company tokenise its shares in 2020?

  • The question shall be judged "Yes", if a component company of the DAX-30 issues shares as an ERC token during calendar 2020, else "No"
    • Last: Jan. 6, 2021, 04:42:58
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2020 at least on one day, and by how much?

  • Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) gives the answer percentage. Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".
    • Last: Jan. 3, 2021, 13:45:34
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the highest price of bitcoin in 2020?

  • The question will be judged by the highest weighted average price of bitcoin in USD in 2020, as published by BitcoinAverage.com. If the service folds or ceases to be reasonably reliable, the leading comparable service's price data shall be used instead.
    • Last: Dec. 18, 2020, 20:06:35
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What relationship will the UK and the EU agree after the Brexit?

  • If the UK notifies the EU of its intent to withdraw from the EU, the following subsequent outcomes are possible in accordance to the EU Treaties: 1. “European Economic Area” (EEA) means that the UK joins as a party to the Agreement on a European Economic Area (Norway model). 2. “Bilateral Agreements” means a set of bilateral agreements between UK and the EU (Switzerland model). 3. Withdraws means the UK withdraws its notification to withdraw from the EU within 2 years. 4. The EU may extend the withdrawal agreement negotiation period beyond 2 years. 5. The withdrawal may become effective 2 years after the Brexit notification without the UK and the EU reaching an agreement about a special relationship. If the UK does not notify the EU of its intent to withdraw within a reasonable period, the question shall be settled prematurely at the market prices prevalent before such notification becomes unrealistic.
    • Last: April 16, 2019, 15:37:37
    • Settled
    USD 50.00

    Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2...

  • According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI). Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.
    • Last: Jan. 10, 2020, 22:23:58
    • Settled
    USD 10.01

    When will U.S. house prices peak before the next crisis?

  • This question shall be judged by the time when the maximum level is reached by the S&P Case Shiller 10-Cities Composite House price index before a cumulative correction by 50 index points or more. As of 17 July 2018 the index was 223 points.
    • Last: April 25, 2021, 22:04:39
    • Settled
    USD 60.00

    When will New Demarchy complete its first successful pilot project?

  • A pilot project of New Demarchy is defined as a political issue subject to a decision by a local, regional, or national political body, taken up by ND and dealt with by following a process according to the principles set out in the manifesto and resulting in a recommended decision. A successful pilot will have occurred if the responsible political body adopts ND's recommendation as its decision and it can be shown beyond reasonable doubt that ND's recommendation was a key factor influencing the political body's decision.
    • Last: Dec. 29, 2019, 10:40:05
    • Settled
    USD 10.02

    2019년 코스피 지수를 예측해 보세요 (19.6月末)?

  • 한국증권거래소
    • Last: Nov. 21, 2019, 21:39:20
    • Settled
    USD 200.00

    2018년 연말 기준 한국의 기준 금리는 얼마일까요?

  • 한국은행 공식 홈페이지
    • Last: Nov. 20, 2019, 06:17:43
    • Settled
    USD 200.00

    Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

  • The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this. Here is to the source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average". Note: The Gallup source originally defined for this question's judgement could be biased and will not be used: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx
    • Last: Jan. 24, 2021, 10:15:47
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    How many OECD countries will have drone delivery services by 2020?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the number of OECD countries which have at least one active privately-owned commercial drone delivery service in 2020. For the avoidance of doubt, defunct or closed services do not count, neither do government owned or operated services.
    • Last: Jan. 27, 2021, 16:11:49
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017 at least on one day, and by how much?

  • Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) gives the answer percentage. Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".
    • Last: Dec. 31, 2017, 02:31:22
    • Settled
    USD 50.00

    Will current inflation be only transitory? What will US CPI be for 2022?

  • This question will settle with the precent change of the Consumer Price Index of the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics between end of 2021 and 2022.
    • Last: Jan. 17, 2023, 03:16:39
    • Settled
    USD 20.00
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