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What will be the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war of 2022?

  • The question will be judged by the closest realised one of the five scenarios defined in an article from April 2022: "Appraising the war in Ukraine and likely outcomes" as published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
    • Due: Feb. 23, 2022, 17:00:00
    • Active
    USD 40.00

    Which developed country will have the highest level of entrepreneurship in 2025, and why?

  • The prediction question shall be judged by the 2025 edition of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) for the countries with a GDP greater US$40,000. The relevant indicator shall be GEM's Total Early Entrepreneurship Activity (TEA) which is the percentage of adults claiming to be actively engaged in starting a new business.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2025, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 40.00

    Commoditisation: Will the global price of the online Usage & Attitude study recover or continue to ...

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the average annual percent increase or decline of the global price of a 15 minute 'Usage & Attitude' study between 2016 and 2020 as specified in the ESOMAR Global Prices Study. Should the study specifications change between 2016 and 2020, the price comparison shall be adjusted accordingly. The average annual price change is calculated as a compound rate, i.e. the fourth root of (Price_2020/Price_2016).
    • Due: Sept. 30, 2020, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 40.00

    Big vs. Small: What will be the combined market share of the top 5 market research firms in 2020?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the sum of the global market share of the 5 largest market research companies as reported by the GMR 2020. For the avoidance of doubt: the set of "largest" companies may change over the prediction horizon.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2019, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 40.00

    Jobs: How many people will the market research industry employ in 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the total number of employees working in the market research industry according to the GMR 2020. As the GMR reports only the employees for the 25 largest market research firms, that number is grossed up pro rata to their share of turnover to get an industry-wide number for judgement..
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2019, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 40.00

    Equal opportunity: Will the share of women in market research being ESOMAR members rise or fall by ...

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the percentage share of female members of ESOMAR world-wide as reported by ESOMAR before the 2020 Annual Congress.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2019, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 40.00

    Who will win the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple Labs?

  • On 22 December 2020, the United States Securities and Exchange Commissions filed a complaint against Ripple Labs Inc,. Christian Larsen, and Bradley Garlinghouse with allegations of selling a "digital assets security" without registering this sale with the SEC. The question shall be judged according to the outcome of the first court judgement, irrespective of appeals.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2022, 00:00:00
    • Active
    USD 20.00

    Will global warming reach +1.5°C by 2030, and why?

  • The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly in 2030, defined as the change to "pre-industrial levels" of the average of land and ocean temperatures, as reported by the NOAA's annual Global Climate Report or a similarly authoritative source.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2030, 19:00:00
    • Active
    USD 10.00

    What will be the US life expectancy in 2047?

  • The outcome will be determined by the official Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) records for the year 2047. For refernce, current link here shows a life expectancy of 78.8 years: https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/fastats/life-expectancy.htm
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2048, 00:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will Elon Musk be elected as US president and when?

  • The question is self explaining. In case of a premature election, the correct answer shall be the subsequent regular quadrennial election year.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2041, 00:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    What year will extraterrestrial life be confirmed?

  • As confirmed by a press conference by NASA or a comparable national space agency or an article in a major science journal
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2040, 19:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    When will the first electric car with a solid-state battery be launched?

  • This question will be settled upon the firm announcement of the launch date of the first mass-production electric car that uses a solid-state battery as its main power source.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2035, 18:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will AI robots replace essential workers by 2035?

  • We will consider the following industries: House maids, Healthcare, Child care, Elderly Assistance, Logistics. We will consider the occupation data in USA and EU market by December 2034. For replacing, we mean when AI robots in those industries, will be 51% of the total workers
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2034, 19:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Which HWAC project will finish first?

  • The project needs to be in full working order to be deemed complete. The mini needs to be driving on the road legally The boat needs to be sailing with full rigging on water The potting wheel needs to be able to make a pot
    • Due: Oct. 1, 2033, 19:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will China Invade Taiwan?If so, When?

  • 1.) If China officially declares/goes into an act of war against Taiwan in the years 2023-2025 then Option "2023-2025" wins 2.) If China officially declares/goes into an act of war against Taiwan in the years 2026-2030 then Option "2026-2030" wins 3.) If China does not declare/goes into an act of war against Taiwan by the start of 2031 Option "not invade" wins.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2031, 19:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    When will researchers find an effective treatment for the next novel virus?

  • The question will be judged by the time it takes from the discovery of the next novel virus to the availability of an effective antiviral treatment, fully approved by a reputable health authority. Emergency use authorisation shall not count as full approval.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2031, 03:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    How long until a home test will be available for the next novel virus?

  • The question will be judged by the time it takes from the discovery of the next novel virus to the availability of a reliable home use test, fully approved by a reputable health authority. Emergency use authorisation shall not count as full approval.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2031, 03:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will Tesla sell 20 million or more vehicles in the year of 2030?

  • Official numbers reported on the impact report (or similar) issued by Tesla in 2031.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2030, 22:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Will Tesla deploy 1,500 Gwh or more of energy storage by 2030??

  • Tesla's impact report (or similar) issued in 2031
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2030, 22:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00

    Which industry will the world's first trillionaire emerge from, and why?

  • The industry from which the first person to have a net worth of 1 trillion USD emerges, as reported by a reputable source such as Forbes.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2030, 19:00:00
    • Active
    USD 0.00
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