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Which developed country will have the highest level of entrepreneurship in 2025, and why?

  • The prediction question shall be judged by the 2025 edition of the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor (GEM) for the countries with a GDP greater US$40,000. The relevant indicator shall be GEM's Total Early Entrepreneurship Activity (TEA) which is the percentage of adults claiming to be actively engaged in starting a new business.
    • Last: May 8, 2024, 10:02:56
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    USD 40.00

    Will Tesla have 100% self-driving a car driving on public roads by June 30th 2023?

  • Evidence provided on the official website or similar demonstrating the full use on roads.
    • Last: May 2, 2024, 23:32:00
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    USD 0.00

    Who will win the SEC's lawsuit against Ripple Labs?

  • On 22 December 2020, the United States Securities and Exchange Commissions filed a complaint against Ripple Labs Inc,. Christian Larsen, and Bradley Garlinghouse with allegations of selling a "digital assets security" without registering this sale with the SEC. The question shall be judged according to the outcome of the first court judgement, irrespective of appeals.
    • Last: May 2, 2024, 23:30:01
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    USD 20.00

    Will global warming reach +1.5°C by 2030, and why?

  • The question will be judged by the global temperature anomaly in 2030, defined as the change to "pre-industrial levels" of the average of land and ocean temperatures, as reported by the NOAA's annual Global Climate Report or a similarly authoritative source.
    • Last: April 29, 2024, 15:37:00
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    USD 10.00

    What will be the outcome of the Russo-Ukrainian war of 2022?

  • The question will be judged by the closest realised one of the five scenarios defined in an article from April 2022: "Appraising the war in Ukraine and likely outcomes" as published by the Foreign Policy Research Institute.
    • Last: April 29, 2024, 15:34:01
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    USD 40.00

    Wird der Euroraum bis 2030 eine Hyperinflation erleben?

  • Es gilt die jährliche Inflation im Euroraum laut dem monatlichen Euroindikatoren-Bericht der Eurostat, Luxemburg.
    • Last: Jan. 30, 2024, 04:50:18
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    USD 0.00

    Who will win the EURO 2024?

  • EURO 2024 Winner, as according to: https://www.uefa.com/euro2024/
    • Last: Nov. 30, 2023, 23:39:59
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    Will Elon Musk be elected as US president and when?

  • The question is self explaining. In case of a premature election, the correct answer shall be the subsequent regular quadrennial election year.
    • Last: Nov. 9, 2023, 20:51:39
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    USD 0.00

    Will Joe Biden be a good President, and why?

  • The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Joe Biden as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2025. If FiveThirtyEight has no approval rating statistic, the question will be judged by the ranking on Gallup's presidential job approval center. Should Joe Biden's presidency end early, it shall be the last rating prior to this. If Joe Biden's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (12-14) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (10-11) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-9 will be judged as "Average".
    • Last: Oct. 10, 2023, 10:34:50
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    Wird bis 2025 in einem militärischen Konflikt eine Atomwaffe eingesetzt werden?

  • "Nein": Bis Ende 2025 MEZ wurde keine Atomwaffe eingesetzt. | "Ja, durch eine Nation": Eine Nation, die Kriegspartei ist, setzt eine oder mehrere Atomwaffen im Konflikt ein. | "Ja, durch zwei oder mehr Nationen": Der Atomkrieg eskaliert, die Frage wird sofort abgerechnet. | Atomwaffentests gelten nicht als militärischer Waffeneinsatz im Sinne dieser Prognosefrage.
    • Last: June 14, 2023, 10:09:08
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    Welchen Höchststand erreicht der EZB-Leitzinssatz bis 2025?

  • Als EZB-Leitzins i.S. dieser Prognosefrage gilt der Zinssatz für die Einlagefazilität der EZB ab Handelsbeginn bis 31. Dezember 2025.
    • Last: May 1, 2023, 04:49:15
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    USD 0.00

    Which company will be first to launch a smartwatch with automatic accurate blood pressure measureme...

  • The question will be judged by the first self-calibrating and fully automatic smartwatch receiving regulatory approval in the US or the EU. If no such smartwatch is on the market by the end of 2023 the question will be judged with "None".
    • Last: April 17, 2023, 05:14:57
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    USD 0.00

    When will be the end of the Syria war?

  • An international peace treaty singed from all stakeholder that signifies the end of the war. The start of each year (e.g. 2020) is from 1rst January to 31 December.
    • Last: April 1, 2023, 22:31:30
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    Will the majority of Australians vote in favor of same-sex marriage in the upcoming ballot?

  • https://www.nytimes.com/2017/09/07/world/australia/same-sex-marriage-vote.html
    • Last: April 1, 2023, 12:07:48
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    Will Tesla sell 20 million or more vehicles in the year of 2030?

  • Official numbers reported on the impact report (or similar) issued by Tesla in 2031.
    • Last: April 1, 2023, 12:04:16
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    USD 0.00

    Which industry will the world's first trillionaire emerge from, and why?

  • The industry from which the first person to have a net worth of 1 trillion USD emerges, as reported by a reputable source such as Forbes.
    • Last: April 1, 2023, 11:53:52
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    USD 0.00

    Will Tesla deploy 1,500 Gwh or more of energy storage by 2030??

  • Tesla's impact report (or similar) issued in 2031
    • Last: April 1, 2023, 11:47:04
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    USD 0.00

    "The Bout" - Dan O'Dowd against Elon Musk: Will a self-driving Tesla run down a child?

  • Tech billionaire Dan O'Dowd publicly challenged Tesla founder Elon Musk to a "Bout to end all Doubt", a public test if a self-driving Tesla will run down a child-sized dummy. Possible outcomes are as follows: If the event does not proceed within a year, the question will be judged "Undecided". If Tesla thinks the test deceptive or manipulative they may sue the Dawn Project or Dan O'Dowd, e.g. for libel. The test may proceed with a current FSD Beta version (latest 10.69.1) or a newer one. https://dawnproject.com/the-bout-to-end-all-doubt-dan-odowd-challenges-elon-musk-to-publicly-test-a-self-driving-tesla-to-determine-if-it-will-run-down-a-child/
    • Last: March 30, 2023, 07:30:49
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    USD 0.00

    What type of "meat" will be the highest selling at McDonald's in 4 years?

  • 1) If plant-based meat will be the highest selling "meat" at McDonald's in four 4 years, then "Plant-based meat" wins. 2) If lab-grown meat (grown from animal cells in lab without hurting the animal) will be the highest selling "meat" at McDonald's in four 4 years, then "Lab-grown meat" wins. 3) If traditional meat (sourced from traditionally farmed animals) will be the highest selling "meat" at McDonald's in four 4 years, then "Traditional (animal) meat" wins.
    • Last: Jan. 22, 2023, 22:15:14
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    USD 0.00

    When will a COVID-19 vaccine be mass produced?

  • The question will be judged by the point in time when facilities around the world start mass production of a COVID-19 vaccine, fully approved by a reputable health authority. Emergency use authorisation shall not count as full approval.
    • Last: Jan. 19, 2023, 15:49:16
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    USD 0.00
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