Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2016?

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§ Judgement rule

How will the final result of the question be determined?

According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI). Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.
Reference date: Dec. 31, 2016, 24:00 CET

Answer options

Widget Price
 Worse (PI less than -5 %)
10.38 %
 Equal (PI +/- 5 %)
9.97 %
 Slightly better (PI +5 to +10 %)
40.69 %
 Better (PI +10 to +20 %)
30.69 %
 Significantly better (PI +20 to +30 %)
3.88 %
 A lot better (PI +30 to +50 %)
2.17 %
 Absolutely superior (PI of more than +50 %)
2.20 %

Price trend

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Wiki article

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Objective

A key question for New Demarchy is which democratic variant produces the better decisions:

  • election of professional politicians as long-term political representatives
  • expertise-weighted sortition of citizens as atomistic decision makers

For the time being, before New Demarchy has achieved formal decision power, a proxy indicator is the direct comparison of the average error of politicians' and demarchic predictions.

President George W. Bush delivers remarks on the Fiscal Year 2008 budget  - Copyright: The White HouseBackground

Professional politicians may announce their policy decisions concurrently with a statement of their expected desirable impact. There may be statements about undesirable effects too, and how these outweigh by the positive ones.

Irrespective of whether bad forecasts cause bad decisions, or ideological decisions are just being rationalised with bad forecasts: forecasts are empirically falsifiable in the sense of Austrian philosopher Karl Popper. They should be tracked and compared with final results to improve political accountability.

Professional politicians vs. demarchic decision makers

New Demarchy does not need professional politicians holding on to an office. All citizens appointed by expertise-weighted sortition continue their (non-political) profession once a decision is made.

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Question owner:
Hubertus Hofkirchner
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