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Industry health: Will the market research industry grow or shrink from 2016 to 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate (net CAGR) of the tradítional global market research industry turnover as reported by the ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2020. For the avoidance of doubt, the GMR reports the prior year's turnover.
    • Last: March 11, 2022, 01:55:02
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Substitution: Will the importance of Big Data rise or fall until 2020?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the ratio of Google search traffic for "Big Data" divided by that for "Market Research". Search traffic shall be calculated for the last full calendar month before the ESOMAR Congress 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 18, 2017, 12:54:26
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Crowdsourcing: What percentage level of interest will Prediction Markets reach by 2020 compared to ...

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the ratio of Google search traffic for "Prediction Markets" divided by that for "Market Research". Search traffic shall be calculated for the last full calendar month before the ESOMAR Congress 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 18, 2017, 13:01:22
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Research methods: Will online qualitative grow or shrink vs. online quantitative by 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the share of spend by research method as reported by the ESOMAR GMR 2020. The result shall be the percentage of online qualitative research within the total of online research methods (i.e. online quantitative and qualitative).
    • Last: March 11, 2022, 01:55:19
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    What will the exchange rate of US$ per Bitcoin be at the end of 2013?

  • The question will be judged by the weighted average of the last five ticks from active Bitcoin exchanges before the end of the year 2013 (US Pacific time).
    • Last: Jan. 8, 2014, 04:32:57
    • Settled
    USD 133.98

    Will income inequality increase in Europe in 2013?

  • Ratio between top and bottom 20% of income distribution. Judgement by data from Eurostat.
    • Last: April 20, 2016, 07:38:28
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    What price will the base model Google Glass retail for in USD?

  • At the time of the announcement of retail availability, the price (USD) of the lowest tier model available in the US will be used.
    • Last: Oct. 19, 2018, 01:52:08
    • Settled
    USD 5.00

    Will the Playstation 4 or the Xbox One sell more consoles worldwide by March 29th, 2014?

  • As determined by hardware sales numbers posted by VGChartz.com during the period starting October of 2013 through the week ending March 29th, 2014.
    • Last: March 27, 2014, 04:25:04
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    Will the new Microsoft tablet dominate Android tablets?

  • Unit shipments in 2013 of tablets operating under Windows 8 and Android, respectively.
    • Last: March 2, 2014, 14:07:06
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    What will the court rule in the case of Oscar Pistorius, the Blade Runner, who shot and killed his ...

  • First trial result, before any appeals, after bail hearing. If convicted of multiple charges, the one carrying the highest prison term will be judged as the Final Answer.
    • Last: Oct. 23, 2014, 05:10:56
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    What percentage of Australian new car sales in 2015 will be cars with computerized automated parkin...

  • The interdependently verified data on new car sales in 2015. "Automated parking" and "self-driving capability" means any feature being promoted as assisting the driver by having the cars computer make decisions about steering, braking and accelerating the vehicle independently of the driver. Does not include features not advertised as such, e.g traction control.
    • Last: Oct. 18, 2018, 14:34:53
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    What will be the range of electric cars in 2015?

  • The independently verified number of miles of the best-selling electric car in the calendar year of 2015 at full charge under normal conditions. Ancilliary non-electric motors or similar are deemed irrelevant. "Best-selling" means new registrations in the United States.
    • Last: May 16, 2016, 11:47:55
    • Settled
    USD 15.00

    What will be the hashrate of bitcoin at the end of 2021?

  • The question will be judged with the 30-day average mining hashrate of bitcoin in million TH/s on 31st December 2021 as shown on Blockchain.com. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
    • Last: Dec. 30, 2021, 04:30:23
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will Ethereum 2.0 launch any shard chain functions in 2021?

  • The question will be judged depending on which feature is shipped and launched by the Ethereum 2.0 project during calendar 2021.
    • Last: Dec. 30, 2021, 02:40:23
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the highest price of bitcoin in 2021?

  • The question will be judged by the highest weighted daily average USD price of bitcoin in 2021, as published by BitcoinAverage.com. If the service folds or ceases to be reasonably reliable, a leading comparable service's 24h-price data shall be used instead.
    • Last: Dec. 19, 2021, 16:57:25
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be bitcoin's dominance at year end 2021?

  • The question will be judged by bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalisation according to CoinMarketCap at year-end 2021 UTC. For reference, dominance was 70.5% at year-end 2020. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
    • Last: Dec. 31, 2021, 20:44:23
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    How liquid will Lightning Network be at the end of 2021?

  • The question will be judged by the total bitcoin denominated liquidity in Lightning Network as of 31 December 2021 24:00 UTC.
    • Last: Jan. 2, 2022, 22:53:18
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Wieviele tägliche COVID-19 Neuinfektionen wird es in Österreich Anfang September geben, wenn keine ...

  • Abgerechnet wird mit der durchschnittlichen Zahl der täglichen Neuinfektionen in den 7 Tagen von 1. bis 7. September 2020 laut offizieller Statistik des österreichischen Gesundheitsministeriums. Sollte die Regierung eine materielle Verschärfung der Maßnahmen beschließen, wird zum Zeitpunkt der Bekanntgabe mit aktuellem Prognosekurs abgerechnet.
    • Last: July 23, 2020, 17:58:25
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will Bitcoin's reward halving in May 2020 impact its value?

  • This question will be settled by the price difference of the Bitcoin price on the day before the halving at block 630,000 compared to the day after halving, as recorded on https://cointelegraph.com/bitcoin-price-index. Cointelegaph' price definition shall be authoritative.
    • Last: May 13, 2020, 02:27:00
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will a government or a major US corporation successfully launch an own cryptocurrency during 2020? ...

  • For purposes of this questions "Government "means the a sovereign country which is a member of the United Nations. "Major US Company" means any component company of either the Dow 30 or the NASDAQ 100 index. "Successful launch" means that at least 51% of consensus influence must rest with outside parties.
    • Last: Dec. 30, 2020, 20:22:49
    • Settled
    USD 20.00
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