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Quale candidato vincerà le elezioni primarie del Partito Democratico il prossimo 8 dicembre 2013?

  • Sulla base dell'annuncio ufficiale dei risultati da PD pubblicato sul sito http://www.primariepd2013.it/ oppure http://www.partitodemocratico.it/. Gli acquisti di titoli virtuali del vincitore saranno valutati al 100% e quelli di un altro candidato allo 0%.
    • Due: Dec. 7, 2013, 18:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    Which of these brands of shampoo will have experienced the most growth in usage between December 20...

  • This question relates to the Kantar shampoo study. Compare the usage recorded in the 2013 study to the usage recorded in the 2012 study and predict which shampoo brand will have experienced the most growth in usage over the last year. The growth measurement will be based on the absolute increase in market share for any one brand and not percent increase of share for anyone brand.
    • Due: Dec. 16, 2013, 19:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 50.00

    Will income inequality increase in Europe in 2013?

  • Ratio between top and bottom 20% of income distribution. Judgement by data from Eurostat.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2013, 18:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    Will the new Microsoft tablet dominate Android tablets?

  • Unit shipments in 2013 of tablets operating under Windows 8 and Android, respectively.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2014, 00:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    What price will the base model Google Glass retail for in USD?

  • At the time of the announcement of retail availability, the price (USD) of the lowest tier model available in the US will be used.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2014, 02:59:00
    • Settled
    USD 5.00

    What will the exchange rate of US$ per Bitcoin be at the end of 2013?

  • The question will be judged by the weighted average of the last five ticks from active Bitcoin exchanges before the end of the year 2013 (US Pacific time).
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2014, 03:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 133.98

    Which of these brands of shampoo will have the highest user satisfaction in the 2013 study?

  • This question relates to the UK shampoo study of December 2013 by GMI (see "Topics"). Panelists are asked to rank their satisfaction with each brand they used in terms of meeting their personal needs for a shampoo.
    • Due: Jan. 8, 2014, 19:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 80.00

    GMI 2013 UK shampoo market study: Which reason will panelists mention most often for chosing the br...

  • This question relates to the GMI UK shampoo market study of December 2013 (also see "Topic" below).
    • Due: Jan. 8, 2014, 19:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 60.00

    GMI 2013 UK shampoo market study: How will the average price of shampoo change in the next 12 month...

  • This question relates to the GMI UK shampoo market study of December 2013 (also see "Topic" below). The answer chosen most often by all GMI respondents will be used to judge this prediction question, which means the task here is to predict what the others will say.
    • Due: Jan. 8, 2014, 19:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 30.00

    Which brands of shampoo will have grown the most in usage when UK respondents will be asked next ye...

  • This prediction question relates to the forthcoming 2014 GMI study of the UK shampoos market. Compare the usage which the 2014 study will record to the usage of the 2013 study. In other words, the prediction is which shampoo brand will have experienced the most growth in usage over the next year according to the 2014 study respondents. The growth measurement will be based on the absolute increase in market share for any one brand and not percent increase of share for anyone brand.
    • Due: Jan. 8, 2014, 19:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Will the Playstation 4 or the Xbox One sell more consoles worldwide by March 29th, 2014?

  • As determined by hardware sales numbers posted by VGChartz.com during the period starting October of 2013 through the week ending March 29th, 2014.
    • Due: April 1, 2014, 02:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    Which team will win the 2014 PBA Commissioner's Cup?

  • The official result sanctioned by the Philippine Basketball Association (PBA) at the end of this conference will be binding. The "None" answer captures the unlikely event that no team wins the championship. This could be due to a number of extraneous variables, ranging from the cancellation of key games due to weather calamities, or the forfeiture of the entire conference in favor of Philippine Team (SMART Gilas) practices in preparation for the FIBA Basketball World Cup, among other reasons.
    • Due: May 23, 2014, 12:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    What percentage of Australian new car sales in 2015 will be cars with computerized automated parkin...

  • The interdependently verified data on new car sales in 2015. "Automated parking" and "self-driving capability" means any feature being promoted as assisting the driver by having the cars computer make decisions about steering, braking and accelerating the vehicle independently of the driver. Does not include features not advertised as such, e.g traction control.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2015, 08:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    What will be the range of electric cars in 2015?

  • The independently verified number of miles of the best-selling electric car in the calendar year of 2015 at full charge under normal conditions. Ancilliary non-electric motors or similar are deemed irrelevant. "Best-selling" means new registrations in the United States.
    • Due: Jan. 1, 2016, 00:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 15.00

    Will New Demarchy produce better policy impact forecasts than professional politicians already in 2...

  • According to the manifesto, New Demarchy will capture policy impact predictions by politicians and run them as prediction questions on the prediction market. For some of these, final results will become available during 2016. We will divide the mean absolute errors (MAE) of the collective forecast of members on the prediction market by the MAE's of the responsible politicians. A constant of 100 % minus this ratio gives the performance indicator (PI). Hence a PI above 0 % will indicate an improvement, below 0 % a worse performance than politicians.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2016, 18:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 10.01

    How many 4k TV (Ultra HD TV) units will be sold in 2016?

  • This question shall be judged by the 4k TV units sold worldwide in the calendar year 2016 as reported by market research report form a reputable and competent source.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2016, 18:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 50.00

    When will New Demarchy complete its first successful pilot project?

  • A pilot project of New Demarchy is defined as a political issue subject to a decision by a local, regional, or national political body, taken up by ND and dealt with by following a process according to the principles set out in the manifesto and resulting in a recommended decision. A successful pilot will have occurred if the responsible political body adopts ND's recommendation as its decision and it can be shown beyond reasonable doubt that ND's recommendation was a key factor influencing the political body's decision.
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2017, 18:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 10.02

    Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017 at least on one day, and by how much?

  • Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) gives the answer percentage. Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".
    • Due: Dec. 31, 2017, 19:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 50.00

    Which movie will have the most successful opening weekend in Austria for W19/2018?

  • The movie with the highest number of viewers for its opening weekend (11th - 13th May 2018), as reported by the Austrian Film Institute, will be deemed the correct answer. If a movie has been in the Austrian cinemas on a prior weekend, it does not qualify.
    • Due: May 13, 2018, 18:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 25.00

    How many people will see Deadpool 2 during its opening weekend in Austria?

  • This question will be settled by the amount of viewers that watch Deadpool 2 during its opening weekend in Austria (18. - 20. May 2018), as reported by the Austrian Film Institute.
    • Due: May 20, 2018, 18:00:00
    • Settled
    USD 25.00
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