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Will current inflation be only transitory? What will US CPI be for 2022?

  • This question will settle with the precent change of the Consumer Price Index of the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics between end of 2021 and 2022.
    • Last: Jan. 17, 2023, 04:16:39
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will automation cause rising unemployment by 2020?

  • The question will be judged by the OECD average employment rate of workers with an education level below upper secondary, as shown by the OECD Data report for 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 30, 2022, 01:45:04
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    Research methods: Will online qualitative grow or shrink vs. online quantitative by 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the share of spend by research method as reported by the ESOMAR GMR 2020. The result shall be the percentage of online qualitative research within the total of online research methods (i.e. online quantitative and qualitative).
    • Last: March 11, 2022, 02:55:19
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Industry health: Will the market research industry grow or shrink from 2016 to 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate (net CAGR) of the tradítional global market research industry turnover as reported by the ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2020. For the avoidance of doubt, the GMR reports the prior year's turnover.
    • Last: March 11, 2022, 02:55:02
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    How liquid will Lightning Network be at the end of 2021?

  • The question will be judged by the total bitcoin denominated liquidity in Lightning Network as of 31 December 2021 24:00 UTC.
    • Last: Jan. 2, 2022, 23:53:18
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the lowest price of bitcoin in 2021?

  • The question will be judged by the lowest weighted daily average USD price of bitcoin during calendar 2021, according to a leading cryptocurrency price database. "Day" is defined in UTC.
    • Last: Jan. 1, 2022, 07:00:17
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will 2021 see a brain drain away from Ethereum?

  • This question will be judged on 31st December 2021 by the ratio of job listings for either Ethereum vs Bitcoin Developers on crypto job portal Indeed.com. On 04 Jan 2021, there were 373 job offers for ETH vs 428 for BTC, hence the ratio was 87%.
    • Last: Jan. 1, 2022, 05:12:21
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be bitcoin's dominance at year end 2021?

  • The question will be judged by bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalisation according to CoinMarketCap at year-end 2021 UTC. For reference, dominance was 70.5% at year-end 2020. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
    • Last: Dec. 31, 2021, 21:44:23
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the hashrate of bitcoin at the end of 2021?

  • The question will be judged with the 30-day average mining hashrate of bitcoin in million TH/s on 31st December 2021 as shown on Blockchain.com. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
    • Last: Dec. 30, 2021, 05:30:23
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will Ethereum 2.0 launch any shard chain functions in 2021?

  • The question will be judged depending on which feature is shipped and launched by the Ethereum 2.0 project during calendar 2021.
    • Last: Dec. 30, 2021, 03:40:23
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the highest price of bitcoin in 2021?

  • The question will be judged by the highest weighted daily average USD price of bitcoin in 2021, as published by BitcoinAverage.com. If the service folds or ceases to be reasonably reliable, a leading comparable service's 24h-price data shall be used instead.
    • Last: Dec. 19, 2021, 17:57:25
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    When will U.S. house prices peak before the next crisis?

  • This question shall be judged by the time when the maximum level is reached by the S&P Case Shiller 10-Cities Composite House price index before a cumulative correction by 50 index points or more. As of 17 July 2018 the index was 223 points.
    • Last: April 25, 2021, 23:04:39
    • Settled
    USD 60.00

    What percent of users will be smartphone addicts by 2020?

  • This question will be judged by the percent of worldwide smartphone users in 2020 who check their phone more than 50 times a day, as reported by a leading consumer trends report.
    • Last: April 24, 2021, 08:55:50
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    How many OECD countries will have drone delivery services by 2020?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the number of OECD countries which have at least one active privately-owned commercial drone delivery service in 2020. For the avoidance of doubt, defunct or closed services do not count, neither do government owned or operated services.
    • Last: Jan. 27, 2021, 17:11:49
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

  • The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this. Here is to the source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average". Note: The Gallup source originally defined for this question's judgement could be biased and will not be used: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx
    • Last: Jan. 24, 2021, 11:15:47
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    Will a DAX company tokenise its shares in 2020?

  • The question shall be judged "Yes", if a component company of the DAX-30 issues shares as an ERC token during calendar 2020, else "No"
    • Last: Jan. 6, 2021, 05:42:58
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will privacy coin Monero be delisted in 2020?

  • The questions will be judged by the number of delistings of Monero from crypto exchanges. Monero was listed on 51 exchanges as of year end 2019, here in alphabetical order: Atomars, BigONE, Binance, Bisq, Bitalong, Bitci, Bitcoin.com, Bitexbook, Bitfinex, BitHash, Bithumb, Bittrex, BTCNEXT, BTCSquare, BTSE, BW.com, CHAOEX, CITEX, CoinBene, CoinEx, CREX24, DCoin, Digifinex, DragonEx, EXMO, Exrates, Finexbox, Gate.io, Graviex, HitBC, HPX, Huobi, IDCM, IncoreX, Indodax, Indoex, Kraken, KuCoin, MXC, OKEx, Poloniex, QBTC, SouthXchange, STEX, Tokenomy, Tokensnet, TradeOgre, VCCExchange, Wavesexchange, XT, ZBG. For the avoidance of doubt: General closings of an exchange or mergers shall not count as a delisting. Source: https://www.coingecko.com/de/munze/monero#markets
    • Last: Jan. 5, 2021, 21:04:39
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the lowest price of bitcoin in 2020?

  • The question will be judged by the lowest weighted average price of bitcoin in USD in 2020, as published by BitcoinAverage.com. If the service folds or ceases to be resonably reliable, the leading comparable service's price data shall be used instead.
    • Last: Jan. 3, 2021, 16:11:46
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2020 at least on one day, and by how much?

  • Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) gives the answer percentage. Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".
    • Last: Jan. 3, 2021, 14:45:34
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will a government or a major US corporation successfully launch an own cryptocurrency during 2020? ...

  • For purposes of this questions "Government "means the a sovereign country which is a member of the United Nations. "Major US Company" means any component company of either the Dow 30 or the NASDAQ 100 index. "Successful launch" means that at least 51% of consensus influence must rest with outside parties.
    • Last: Dec. 30, 2020, 21:22:49
    • Settled
    USD 20.00
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