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What will the court rule in the case of Oscar Pistorius, the Blade Runner, who shot and killed his ...

  • First trial result, before any appeals, after bail hearing. If convicted of multiple charges, the one carrying the highest prison term will be judged as the Final Answer.
    • Last: April 29, 2024, 15:40:01
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    Will the new Microsoft tablet dominate Android tablets?

  • Unit shipments in 2013 of tablets operating under Windows 8 and Android, respectively.
    • Last: Dec. 31, 2023, 21:50:28
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    Will current inflation be only transitory? What will US CPI be for 2022?

  • This question will settle with the precent change of the Consumer Price Index of the U.S. Bureau of Labour Statistics between end of 2021 and 2022.
    • Last: Nov. 26, 2022, 07:26:30
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will automation cause rising unemployment by 2020?

  • The question will be judged by the OECD average employment rate of workers with an education level below upper secondary, as shown by the OECD Data report for 2020.
    • Last: Nov. 7, 2022, 22:27:31
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    What price will the base model Google Glass retail for in USD?

  • At the time of the announcement of retail availability, the price (USD) of the lowest tier model available in the US will be used.
    • Last: Oct. 6, 2022, 08:16:29
    • Settled
    USD 5.00

    Will Ethereum overtake Bitcoin in 2017 at least on one day, and by how much?

  • Criteria: Ether marketcap divided by Bitcoin marketcap on a given day (24h) gives the answer percentage. Source of judgement data: https://coinmarketcap.com/#USD. If this site ceases operation or becomes unreliable, judgement data shall be taken from the top ranked site listed on Google with the search term "crypto market capitalisation".
    • Last: Sept. 22, 2022, 23:59:17
    • Settled
    USD 50.00

    Crowdsourcing: What percentage level of interest will Prediction Markets reach by 2020 compared to ...

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the ratio of Google search traffic for "Prediction Markets" divided by that for "Market Research". Search traffic shall be calculated for the last full calendar month before the ESOMAR Congress 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 13, 2022, 10:05:32
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Substitution: Will the importance of Big Data rise or fall until 2020?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the ratio of Google search traffic for "Big Data" divided by that for "Market Research". Search traffic shall be calculated for the last full calendar month before the ESOMAR Congress 2020.
    • Last: Sept. 6, 2022, 12:06:42
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Research methods: Will online qualitative grow or shrink vs. online quantitative by 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the share of spend by research method as reported by the ESOMAR GMR 2020. The result shall be the percentage of online qualitative research within the total of online research methods (i.e. online quantitative and qualitative).
    • Last: Sept. 2, 2022, 10:18:19
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Industry health: Will the market research industry grow or shrink from 2016 to 2020, and why?

  • This prediction question shall be judged by the inflation-adjusted compound annual growth rate (net CAGR) of the tradítional global market research industry turnover as reported by the ESOMAR Global Market Research Report 2020. For the avoidance of doubt, the GMR reports the prior year's turnover.
    • Last: Sept. 1, 2022, 12:42:35
    • Settled
    USD 40.00

    Will Donald Trump be a good President, and why?

  • The question shall be judged by the final - i.e. not the average - approval rating of Donald Trump as determined by the combined approval rating of FiveThirtyEight at the end of his first presidency term, expected to finish in January 2021. If Donald Trump's presidency ends earlier, it shall be the last rating prior to this. Here is to the source: https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/trump-approval-ratings/ If Donald Trump's final approval rating puts him among the top 3 (1-3) presidents since Harry Truman the questions shall be judged "Very Good", a lower top 5 rank (4-5) is "Good". A place among the bottom 3 (11-13) shall make him "Very bad", a better bottom 5 rank (9-10) is just "Bad". A rank from 6-8 will be judged as "Average". Note: The Gallup source originally defined for this question's judgement could be biased and will not be used: http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/Presidential-Approval-Ratings-Gallup-Historical-Statistics-Trends.aspx
    • Last: Feb. 18, 2022, 09:45:37
    • Settled
    USD 100.00

    What will be the highest price of bitcoin in 2021?

  • The question will be judged by the highest weighted daily average USD price of bitcoin in 2021, as published by BitcoinAverage.com. If the service folds or ceases to be reasonably reliable, a leading comparable service's 24h-price data shall be used instead.
    • Last: Feb. 17, 2022, 09:38:28
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    How liquid will Lightning Network be at the end of 2021?

  • The question will be judged by the total bitcoin denominated liquidity in Lightning Network as of 31 December 2021 24:00 UTC.
    • Last: Jan. 2, 2022, 23:54:48
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the hashrate of bitcoin at the end of 2021?

  • The question will be judged with the 30-day average mining hashrate of bitcoin in million TH/s on 31st December 2021 as shown on Blockchain.com. https://www.blockchain.com/charts/hash-rate
    • Last: Dec. 22, 2021, 03:40:31
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will 2021 see a brain drain away from Ethereum?

  • This question will be judged on 31st December 2021 by the ratio of job listings for either Ethereum vs Bitcoin Developers on crypto job portal Indeed.com. On 04 Jan 2021, there were 373 job offers for ETH vs 428 for BTC, hence the ratio was 87%.
    • Last: Nov. 8, 2021, 04:11:27
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be the lowest price of bitcoin in 2021?

  • The question will be judged by the lowest weighted daily average USD price of bitcoin during calendar 2021, according to a leading cryptocurrency price database. "Day" is defined in UTC.
    • Last: Nov. 3, 2021, 16:04:22
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    Will the Playstation 4 or the Xbox One sell more consoles worldwide by March 29th, 2014?

  • As determined by hardware sales numbers posted by VGChartz.com during the period starting October of 2013 through the week ending March 29th, 2014.
    • Last: Oct. 15, 2021, 22:56:46
    • Settled
    USD 10.00

    Will Ethereum 2.0 launch any shard chain functions in 2021?

  • The question will be judged depending on which feature is shipped and launched by the Ethereum 2.0 project during calendar 2021.
    • Last: Sept. 14, 2021, 04:36:22
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What will be bitcoin's dominance at year end 2021?

  • The question will be judged by bitcoin's percentage of total crypto market capitalisation according to CoinMarketCap at year-end 2021 UTC. For reference, dominance was 70.5% at year-end 2020. https://coinmarketcap.com/charts/
    • Last: Sept. 14, 2021, 04:34:35
    • Settled
    USD 20.00

    What percent of users will be smartphone addicts by 2020?

  • This question will be judged by the percent of worldwide smartphone users in 2020 who check their phone more than 50 times a day, as reported by a leading consumer trends report.
    • Last: April 21, 2021, 17:26:27
    • Settled
    USD 10.00
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